Solana can handle low liquidity in the 4-hour timeframe using block orders
(Chart is the price of NG1 to USO, inlay is 15 year average WTI price, from Dec 15 – March 15, last 15 years) These past weeks I have been discussing two major issues. One was the upward momentum of pricing going into the shoulder season, due to several effects. The other is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Event (I have nothing more to discuss about this issue. As of now it shows up March 20th-April 15th or it does not. You can read my past ideas and watch the videos for explanations.). I did address the Trump tariffs back on 2/10/25, indicating that Trump is more bark than bite. Maybe this needs a bit more!!!!(https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NGH2025/95JQMSLh-Nat-Gas-Daily-Brief-Trump-Tariffs-2-10-25/) But it now seems that the market is just as uncertain to this barking dog, vs afraid of the bite he can inflict. The one thing the market hates is uncertainty. It can take bad news, in stride. Being able to hedge options and reposition assets to minimize losses and see new avenues of opportunities. But Trump’s on again, off again tactics are destroying market confidence along all fronts. I believe most informed market analyst have been pointing out the fundamental reasons that I have been discussing, for a strengthening market this year (which I will address tomorrow). The four horse men are, storage, LNG exports, higher energy demand, and low rig counts. The EIA has increased the HH monthly future price every month since December, in their monthly STEO report. The has not been any uncertainty from producers in showing restraint from the lows last summer. This past week’s quarterly conference calls form the NG majors, have continued to strengthen their resolve for not oversupplying the market once again. There are only a few producers that have signaled their intent to increase rig count, and by modest amounts. The incredible increase in price these past 8 days were influenced by Trump. His tariff rhetoric beginning with the lack of any deal with Mexico and Canada after the one-month suspension of the January tariffs. Only to be walked back later in the week, then again, walked back further for provisions to Corporations that have been compliant with the previous USCMA trade agreement. The investing community again will wait until April 2nd to see what new chaos will ensue, only to be rescinded and spun again. The European issue, with Trump supporting Russian plans for a negotiated peace deal, followed by threats of sanctions on Russian banks. We should start to tie the price of the Dutch TTF to which way the wind blows in favor of Ukraine or Russia. Talk about uncertainty!!! So if you take out fundamental, there is only one option left, and that is pure speculation. My belief, as others are, that this present market has suspended any formal ties to market fundamentals and structure and pricing. The most recent COT report by the CBOE shows that the number of long vs short positions in the market are the highest since July 2023. The ration of longs to short have not been this high since Summer of 2022!! Not saying that this is where we are headed. Just pointing out that managed money sentiment is and has been quite bullish for about three weeks now. Getting more bullish by the week. This past weeks price move on Tuesday was due to a large fund liquidating, which possibly has dried up a large majority of the near term shorts in the market. This past Sunday night, a lot of buy stops above the opening were met last in thin night trading, a big trader or fund blew up (margin call liquidation), or a combination of both. I don’t see any good fundamental or technical reason for gas to have gotten to those levels, which means people were probably buying up there because they had to, not because they wanted to. But what does that mean about forward pricing? Well, it was inevitable that we would see prices at these levels this trading season. But I think very few were prepared to see the price move so far, so fast. Why, we ask? And the answer just might lie in the seasonal Oil/NG trade. Most winters, with a healthy supply demand balance, the price of NG typically begins drops into the shoulder season starting sometime around the end of the year. Not exactly the end, but sometime around the end. The chart provided shows the average price of WTI for the past 15 years, and we can see that from mid-December to mid-march the average price of WTI increases. Energy traders trade energy. We trade, oil, gasoline, heating oil, NG, distillates, etc… There is a direct correlation to the drop in NG and heating oil to the increase in WTI/Brent. But not this year. This upward trend in prices has to do with refiners locking in pricing for the upcoming gasoline cycle. Not going to get into it here. But the short end. NG down, Oil up = normal seasonal trade. But this year. Oil down, NG up. I believe this is only speculative in nature, due to market dynamics and a need to park capital. See my charts above of the historic relationship vs the last three months. So, we have a group of traders who specialize in energy, who shift allocations around all year, Spring – Oil, Summer – Gas, Fall – NG, Winter – Diesel/Heating Oil. The pattern is repetitive for allocation unless there is some kind of disruption. ENTER TRUMP!!!! There is no doubt that we will see $5.00 NG this year, but I just do not think it has staying power. My belief is that in the short term, we will have a pullback in prices, to a fair adjusted value of somewhere in the $3.90 - $4.35 level until the injection season begins. I would take every opportunity to buy pullbacks in prices below the $4.40 level. The next big energy trade will be Oil again, for the COT report shows the seasonal longs in the market to place orders for the upcoming summer driving period. They are taking long positions to have crude at the refineries in time for the summer blend to be produced. I look at the end of march each year in a bump up in Oil prices, until about April 15th (a nice once a season trade I enjoy). Has followed this path 17 out of the last 22 years, and I have no reason to not believe this will happen again. So, energy traders are going to need some allocation for the upcoming April contract in WTI, to meet May delivery, for Memorial Day gas blend. So, sell what they are running up! NG! Again, this is a very volatile time. I do not recommend this type of trading for the novice, but since Friday’s close I have a strangle in place. Which is two OTM option position. I placed a call at $5.20 and a put at $4.05. I closed my $5.20 call Sunday night not too long after the price settled back from $4.90. It was a nice unexpected position to close. I reentered a $5.00 call again before the market closed today. I will play the volatility back and forth until fundamentals return. Tomorrow I will update the fundamental for the upcoming 8 weeks or so. Not that it matters with this Trump wrecking a pretty sure thing! But we must be ready before the other do. That is how we stay on top of our game. Keep it burning!
Bitcoin BTC is going to continue on it's downtrend until it hits the .6 FIB line which intersects the channel bottom at 72.8k. I'm looking for a big bounce there... if not... we are are literally fucked.... for a while
Dont trade directly .First study chart and company fundamentals.Define entri exit and risk reward safely. I am not a sebi registered analyst .
Weekly candle not yet confirm... Don't worry so much unless weekly candle body closed below 80k :)
It's been a while since I posted an idea and to those who follow me I am sorry/not sorry. I didn't post for a few reasons: 1) I know that there are people who trade my ideas despite my warnings/disclaimers and I didn't like how the market was acting for the last couple of weeks (rightly, as it turns out) and I didn't want anyone else to get caught up in this unnecessarily. I have been continuing to personally trade my system, with mixed results (to be expected in this market), but I wanted to make #100 a good one. 2) I wanted to do a summary of the ideas I've posted so far with #100 and wanted to get that information together first. 3) I think posting this now can provide some insights as to how to deal with market washouts calmly and with confidence, with things that could apply to most trading systems, I think. So first, lets deal with the idea at hand. I chose WMT because: a) it is historically a top 10% stock in terms of daily % return for how I trade, so if anyone decided to follow me on this trade (see disclaimer below), it was at least a stock that has historically done well. And by well, I mean 1355-0 W/L record well, with an AVERAGE gain of 5.16% per trade for all 1355 trades (backtested and actual trades combined) going back through every market meltdown since 1972. b) This is the kind of market that makes it FAR more likely that trades will take a long time to play out. MUCH longer than average. So again, if I have to hold this a long time, I want a quality stock that has a long track record of surviving long downtrends in the market. I can't think of a better retail stock to own during a recession, which I think is a certainty at this point, it's just a question of when it becomes official and how long it lasts. WMT is already the retailer of choice for many, and if saving money becomes a requirement for many more, WMT will steal a lot of business from more expensive retailers. c) despite the recent carnage for it and the market, WMT is still above it's 200d MA and solidly in an uptrend. I always like trading stocks in uptrends. Hopefully it stays in one long enough for me to make my money and run. Lot 1 opened today at the close at 87.82 Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation. _______________________________ So there's my case for WMT. Now here's the case for why I'm trading anything using my system right now. The first idea I posted here was on June 22nd of this past summer. Since the close that day, the Nasdaq's return is actually negative (-1.48%) and the S&P 500 is up marginally (+2.7%). Since June 22nd, I have logged (timestamped) here every buy and sell of every lot of every idea since then. That amounts to a total of 330 lots traded. In the time since, 289 of those trades closed with a gain, 37 are still open and negative, and two were opened today (this one and an add to RDDT) which are neither winning nor losing yet. That's an 87.6% win rate so far. INCLUDING the 37 trades that are losers right now (the losers include 8 lots that are down 30% or more and two options trades that each lost 100%), the AVERAGE return on those 330 trades is +1.88% EACH. That translates to .11% per day held - almost 3x the long term average daily return for stocks and almost 8x the average daily return of the S&P 500 since June 22. Annualized, that's 27% rate of return and I was on pace for a 36% annualized rate of return on these trades before this market swoon hit. Compared to -1.48% and 2.4% for the indices, it's been a pretty good 9 months of trading, but actually below my system's long term average. The profit factor on these trades (including the open losers) is currently 1.98 (it was over 2.5 2 weeks ago before the market collapse began). The average holding period is 17 days, but that is skewed longer by 10 lots of PXS that I've been holding for over 4 months each. The median hold length for all 330 trades is 5 trading days and the most common holding period (including the 37 still open losers) is ONE trading day. OK, this turned out to be a longer post than I intended, so I'll post another idea tomorrow with some thoughts about dealing with trading in down markets. To everyone who is reading this and especially those who are following me - thanks for the follows and for taking the time to read this whole thing. Be safe trading out there!
NIFTY 22400 PE 13TH MAR EXP NIFTY OPTIONS BUYING TRADE TIME FRAME RECOMMENDED TO TRACK TRADE: 5 MINS Hi Traders, The Nifty index is facing selling pressure on higher levels, presenting a potential sell-on-rise opportunity. We recommend exploring the 22450 Put Option (expiring on 13th Mar) at ₹130. Target levels: ₹170 and ₹195. Stop Loss (SL): ₹105 Regards, OptionsDaddy Research Team
I think IOTAusdt now 0.1710 will go to 0.2000 chart 4h
If buyers enter the support area with high strength, there is a possibility of a reversal from the area. Needs confirmation with a strong long candle or hammer candle with a lower body and a very long shadow, indicating that buyers are moving up from the support floor.
NACLIND (NACL Industries Ltd.) -Watch for the breakout