Eur usd breaking 1.05 level and attempting recovery from 1.02 level but only to get rejected. It was rejected twice confirming heavy sell above 1.05 level. Price action showing bears are in control of the area. If the bears manage to keep control of 1.05 level then we will most likely revisit 1.02 area or lower .
I think crypto has recently made an important break and this will be telling later but everything has a bit of a "Too easy" feel about it now and I think we might bull trap. Trying longs for a possible ABC.
If you haven`t bought the dip on GEO: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/idea/uo3Hlv8s/ Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GEO The GEO Group prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-4-17, for a premium of approximately $3.10. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
? GBP/USD 4H Analysis – Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Perspective Current Market Structure: ? Bullish Momentum: The price is currently trending upwards after breaking a short-term high (SH) and liquidity zone. ? Change of Character (CH): Confirmed as the price broke previous resistance, signaling a possible trend continuation. Key Zones & Levels: ? H4 Block Order (Demand Zone): Marked in purple, this area aligns with a strong order block, indicating potential buying interest if the price retraces. ? Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG): Above the demand zone, acting as a potential area for price rebalancing before resuming the uptrend. ? 200 EMA at 1.25179: Serving as dynamic support, aligning with the demand zone for potential buy setups. Potential Scenarios: ? Retracement to Demand Zone (1.2500 - 1.2550) Buyers may step in at the H4 Block Order & Fair Value Gap. Price could form a higher low before continuation. ? Bullish Expansion to New Highs (1.2750 - 1.2800) If demand holds, expect a strong push-up towards liquidity areas. Breakout could trigger momentum buying. Bias: ✅ Bullish (Higher Highs & Higher Lows Forming) ⚠️ Caution: If price breaks below 1.2500, sentiment may shift bearish.
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Bitcoin 4D RSI (38) marks all the major bottoms this bullrun
BTC has touched $80,500 this morning. For anyone thinking its a buying opportunity, best to let the market sell off. There will be lower prices ahead. $73,500 - $72,500 is my 1st support area, but this is by no means the lowest prices possible. Not by any stretch. We have a lot of time to work off this sell off, and plenty of room for lower prices, and lots of missing support. Murrey Math, Elliotwave, and Kumarwave being used for analysis. Posts, comments, and DM's are always welcome. Good Luck.
NVDA Earnings Announcement ? NVIDIA reports earnings today, after market close, and this release could create significant movement. Let’s dive right into the charts and see what the technicals are telling us! With earnings so close, I typically look only at the nearest expiration, which in this case is 02/28 (Friday). The implied move (IV) is around 10%, or approximately 12 points in either direction. That’s what the market has priced in for this binary event. Key Observations The price is hovering around the Transition Zone and very close to the HVL (High Volume Level) around 130–132. This suggests the market maker is trying to remain delta-neutral leading into earnings. Once the report hits, expect potential volatility on Wall Street! ? GEX Levels for Friday ? Bearish Scenario The bottom of the Transition Zone is at 126. If price drops below 126, the next major put support is at 120 and extends to 115 (a negative gamma squeeze zone). In other words, a breach of 126 could lead to a quick slide down to 120. ?Bullish Scenario Major call resistance stands at 150, with a secondary call wall at 145. Above 133 (top of the Transition Zone), calls dominate, meaning the path to 145–150 could open up if we break above the HVL. Longer-Term Perspective ? We’re still in an overall uptrend, but history shows that even with positive surprises on 2 out of the last 4 earnings calls, the market had already priced in those expectations—often leading to a sell-the-news reaction. I do not recommend trading right before the earnings with a binary mindset. It’s like walking into a casino and putting all your chips on red or black—it’s pure gamble! ? Call pricing skew has been on a downward trend since DeepSeek (likely referencing a volatility event), indicating that call butterflies might not be as attractive on NVDA now as they were in the past few weeks. Fundamental Analysis ? NVIDIA is a hype stock, much like TSLA was a few years back. Its current price has factored in a lot of the future potential. Based on FastGraphs and other valuation tools, NVDA 1.44%↑ seems overpriced relative to its underlying performance. A correction might bring it closer to fair value (the “green zone”), like it did in October 2022. Until then, I’m not considering it for a 5+ year long-term investment—no matter what the short-term price action is. Conclusion & Post-Earnings Strategy ? We simply don’t know which direction NVDA will move after earnings. Typically, implied volatility (IV) expands before earnings (~90% of the time) and collapses for the nearest expiration immediately afterward. Even IV on farther-dated expirations can continue to drift lower for a week or two post-earnings. My Plan Since I haven’t opened a time spread trade, I’m focusing on post-earnings setups. If NVDA makes a huge move (breaking out of the 120–150 range), I’ll likely wait at least one more day before placing any new position to let open interest (OI) restructure. April expirations will be more interesting for me after the dust settles.
I am analyzing my thoughts on GA in regards to the High Proability setup, DOL, SWLOW, sellside liquidity on the 5 min
On GRAB I am neither promoting a long nor short, but showing support at the 0.382 Fib level especially when it lines up exactly with the VRVP (visible range volume profile). I try to look for a confluence of these factors. 2/26/2025 1153 PST