The market has been in the doldrums since finding support after a nasty wave of selling that caused AMEX:SPY to decline by an additional 15% in a matter for days. Since we’ve been chopping around in this $65 range, we have seen some sharp swings both ways, but little sense of direction. i think that is about to change soon. Using the time around the Death Cross (When the daily 50MA crosses below the 200MA) of 2022 as a frame of reference, and taking recent PA into account using Elliott Wave, I think it is clear a bear market rally is already underway. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YqUAG2BC/ Starting with 2022, the price fell in three distinct waves before making a significant retracement. The day after the 50MA crossed below the 200MA, the price found a temporary bottom before chopping around for 13 sessions. Volume was on a steady decline before the price made a higher low and retraced nearly 75% of Wave (A) over the course of another 13 sessions (13 is a fibonacci number btw). The price briefly spiked above all of the moving averages (50/100/200) before getting sold off again in the strongest wave of the bear market of that year. https://www.tradingview.com/x/C8yteGRS/ Now looking at the daily chart for this year, the setup is a little bit different but there are still similarities. For starters, the 50MA crossed below the 200MA a few days after the market found a temporary bottom at $482. What I’m counting as Wave A of (B) lasted for five sessions (another Fibonacci number). Wave B of (B) was actually four sessions but I decided to compare the volume of both movements using the same chunk of time. As you can see, there was nearly double the volume in Wave A vs Wave B, signaling that bulls are in control (for now). Volume in Wave A was comparatively higher on average than the entire downtrend, which is also worthy of note. Since we are now in Wave C of (B) and the 100MA is converging with the 200MA, we should see the squeeze here. A similar retracement to complete Wave (B), when comparing to 2022, would suggest AMEX:SPY will spike above $580 rather quickly before the next sell off. If Wave C were to unfold in a more conservative eight sessions (the next biggest fib number) we should see Wave (B) end around Thursday May 1st. It could take a little bit longer since the next FOMC is May 6-7, which could be an event that will cause the market to change directions. https://www.tradingview.com/x/6FWu4BYH/ Lastly, for a closer look, this is how I am counting the sub-waves on the 500R ($5) chart. Wave B was a classic Regular Flat pattern that saw wave (c) find support slightly past 100% of wave (a) at roughly $509. The price quickly found support (much faster than I would have expected) without filling the gap and ripped higher. We’ve also seen the price hover around monthly VWAP for a while, which indicates somewhat of an agreement on price despite the wild swings. The price gapped up over 2% on Wednesday before seeing some selling in the afternoon. We could either close this gap on Thursday or continue higher to close the upper gap at $560 and beyond. Volume increased from wave (b)-(c), and has remained higher - which I think is accumulation. Using intraday ratios, Wave C of (B) could extend as high as the 1.618 extension at $587. https://www.tradingview.com/x/txoQhozd/ Actually, one last thing. TVC:VIX price action also supports my thesis. Even through the PA on AMEX:SPY was relatively neutral on Wednesday after the gap up, VIX still importantly dropped below support and is now below the 0.618 retracement. I think it will return to the 200MA for support, which usually hovers around $20. Fib circles added just because they’re kind of interesting to me when analyzing VIX. If you’ve made it this far, thank you for reading and good luck. As always - use your best judgement and be ready to react to anything that happens in the market.
Description On the 15-minute chart, BTCUSDT remains in a broader up-trend but has paused to digest a fair-value gap between 92 502.9 and 91 888.0. This precise imbalance, aligned with a prior swing-low demand zone, offers a low-risk long opportunity anchored in structural and liquidity confluence. Entry Place a limit buy at 91 900 once any 15 m candle wicks the base of the FVG zone (92 502.9–91 888.0) and closes inside. Stop-Loss Invalidate this long on a close below 91 050, the origin of the buyer impulse. Take-Profit Target 94 350 for an asymmetric R : R of 2.88 : 1. Failed-Breakout Orderblock Watch for a retest of the liquidity printed at the failed-breakout orderblock (~93 223) to confirm bullish continuation. Structure-Flip Level Resistance turned support at 93 223 offers interim validation en route to the target. Risk & Reward This setup risks 8 500 ticks (91 900–91 050) to capture 24 500 ticks (94 350–91 900), yielding R : R ≈ 2.88 : 1. Execution Notes Confirm entry with a lower-timeframe bullish orderflow shift before sizing in. Maintain strict position sizing—risk only a defined percentage of your account per trade.
Gold Educational Post. Trendline Breakout 1st Confirmation. Ascending Triangle Make 2nd Confirmation. Breakout With Bullish Candle 3rd Confirmation.
It's a very good breakout in Cipla on intraday basis. From here, we can expect targets of 1610 & 1680. Hold for 1-2 weeks. Stoploss against this investment can be placed near 1510.
The US500 (S&P 500) 4-hour chart recently showed a gap up, followed by a strong move into the previous range highs. This price action likely triggered buy stops and tapped into buy-side liquidity above the prior swing highs. After this liquidity sweep, the market has pulled back and is now consolidating just above a visible gap, which sits slightly below the current price level. From a Wyckoff perspective, this resembles an upthrust after distribution, where price runs stops above resistance before reversing. The current pullback suggests a potential test of the gap area, which often acts as a magnet for price, especially if there’s unmitigated liquidity left behind. Using ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts, the recent move above the range high can be seen as a raid on buy-side liquidity, followed by a retracement. The gap below current price represents an imbalance, and ICT traders often look for price to revisit such inefficiencies before resuming the trend. ? Fundamental & Sentiment Backdrop Recent data shows the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp correction in April, with a monthly drop of about 5.75% from the previous month, but it remains up 6.8% year-over-year (YCharts). The market has been volatile, with sentiment shifting due to macroeconomic concerns, including renewed trade tensions (notably new tariffs), a mixed earnings season, and questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves (IG). Wall Street analysts have recently revised their year-end targets lower, citing increased risks from tariffs and slowing earnings growth (Yahoo Finance). The VIX is elevated (28.45), and the put/call ratio is above 1, indicating heightened hedging and caution among market participants (YCharts). ? Wyckoff & ICT Concepts in Play ?️ Wyckoff: The recent rally into the highs and subsequent pullback fits the upthrust after distribution narrative. If the market fails to reclaim the highs, a move back into the gap (potentially as a sign of weakness) is likely. ? ICT: The gap below current price is a clear area of interest. If price trades down to fill this gap, watch for a reaction—either a bounce (if demand steps in) or a continuation lower if the gap fails to hold. ? Day Trade Idea (Not Intra-day) Scenario: If price trades down to fill the gap just below the current level (around 5,300–5,320), monitor for a bullish reaction (such as a strong daily close, a bullish order block, or a clear rejection wick). Trade Plan: ?️♂️ Wait for price to fill the gap and show a bullish daily signal. ? Enter a day trade long at the next day’s open if confirmation is present (e.g., a bullish daily candle close or a break above the previous day’s high). ? Place a stop loss just below the gap or the most recent swing low. ? Target the previous high near 5,400 for a day trade, or consider scaling out if momentum continues. Alternative: If price fails to hold the gap and closes below it on the daily chart, consider a day trade short the following day, targeting the next liquidity pool below (e.g., 5,200). ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should do your own research or consult with a professional before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Dear friend and followers, It's has been long I share my idea ? here, Sorry ! Please let trade this EURUSD SET UP. Watch entry on 1hr time frame for bearish move confirmation candles Good luck
A typical Re-Accumulation Schematic #1 It is very difficult to get this kind of shcematic With a successful test of spring What intrigued me, vol @ 21/4/25 (black arrow) -too shallow accompanied with contraction (Typical of Feather's Weight **Yellow Line) Thus position intiated as attached Tight SL PureWyckoff
All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! https://www.tradingview.com/?aff_id=109100
Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/vYaceW5a/?symbol=CME_MINI%3ANQ1%21 After manyyyy months, I am finally coming back into my bread and butter.. Supply and Demand zones. Relearning this type of chart analysis was interesting, muscle memory kicked in but I definitely had to rewatch and re-read some old material to remember how I used to do this. Back to the charts, my 2 games plans are: 1. Push into 1HR supply above to create (an ugly) shoulder and go short to fill the gap below. If we are respecting higher timeframe trend down, a retest of the gap/IMB/demand below would make sense. 2. Break out of HTF trend and reclaim the 1HR supply to become support (new demand level). If we are bullish and news is actually good, I want to see the 30MIN supply and gap get filled above.
Hey Traders, As you can see on the chart, price tapped into a major level around the $37,000 area, where we saw a weekly liquidity grab followed by a 4H change of character — leading to a strong push up to the $40,800 zone. Now, we’re looking at two possible scenarios: ? Scenario 1: Price pulls back to the $39,100 area and gives a solid 4H confirmation → Targeting the $41,000 zone. ? Scenario 2: Price breaks below the $39,100 area and the trendline, then pulls back into the same level with confirmation → Targeting the $37,000 / $36,000 area. ⚠️ This is not financial advice — just sharing my view on the current setup. Be safe, be happy, and have a great trading day. – Mr. Wolf ?