Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bear rejections around 20000 are getting stronger and we could have seen the intermediate lows on Friday. I lean heavily bullish since we have touched the big bull trend line and market reacted there as expected. Bounce up could easily go for 21k again, which is the 50% retracement. Again. Bears need to form a proper wider channel down if they want lower prices. The past 3 weeks of selling were getting climactic and unsustainable. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 19500 - 21400 bull case: Very bullish daily bar on Friday and bulls need follow-through to trigger a short squeeze. They want at least 21k again and if bears are not strong enough there, this selling could already be over again. 50% retracement is 21k and two big magnets are enough for me to have this as my main target next week. Bulls have to stay above 20k or they risk more poking at the bull trend line that started 2 years ago. On the monthly chart we are in a perfect bull wedge that has room to the upside and a bounce would fit the structure much more than a break below 19700. Invalidation is below 20400. bear case: Bears have shown strength for 3 consecutive weeks but are they really gonna fight the big trend line before we had a bounce? Selling around 20k is bad, no matter how you look at it. My measured move target for the bears was 19600 and the low was 19766. I really don’t have much for the bears at these lows. Sure we can continue down but it’s very unlikely. Best bears could get is probably sideways movement and if they are really strong, we stay below 20400. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral until bulls continue. Heavy bullish bias going into next week. I doubt we go much lower than 19766. 21k is my target. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-23: Neutral since we are in a 4-5 month trading range. Still leaning heavily bearish for this year but for now it’s sideways until we get consecutive daily closes below 20000. current swing trade: None chart update: Updated possible bigger wave thesis for the next months. Until we have a W2 and new lows afterwards, it’s a rough guess.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Every bounce is sold. Target 75k remains but I hope for 70k. The big bear trend line is valid until broken, so bulls need to claim 94k again for higher prices. Not the white house summit nor the crypto reserve could break the bear trend line, why would it break now? People are running for the exits and are desperate for exit liquidity. Hence the explosion in "btfd posts”. current market cycle: bear trend key levels: 70k - 94k bull case: Bulls need anything above 94k to break above the bear trend line. If they can claim it, no reason not to go for 100k again but for now that’s a pipe dream. This is going down and bulls would need to stop the daily big bear bars for more days to turn this neutral again. Invalidation is below 70k. bear case: Bears showing strength and are in full control. They want to retest the previous ath 73805 and the cluster of previous highs in that area. For now it’s tough to have a better looking structure than this ABC move. The weekly chart could be seen as W3 we are currently in but it’s ugly af. If bears are really strong, we go directly down to 70k and then we could very well test the bull trend line around 67k. There is no reason why it should break on the next touch but it would be amazing for the bears to get there because it would be a 40% crash in roughly 2 months. I am enjoying this down move a lot, given the attention these people get, that tell everyone they should sell their grandmother and a kidney to buy btc above 100k. Invalidation is above 94k. short term: Max bearish. Any pullback is a good short with a stop 97k. medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Removed 5-wave thesis for now.
This could easily happen considering Weekly + Monthly... I drew this liquidity point 1 year ago when it broke out. The 40.7k point is all untapped liquidity from buyers who bought high leverage and never took profit. Good Long to 60k ish!
Thanks for the clarification. Based on the chart you provided and the bullish bias toward the resistance target of 2950, here’s a "disruption" or alternative analysis—a contrarian scenario that challenges the bullish view: Bearish Disruption Analysis: 1. False Breakout & Rejection Scenario: Current price hovering around 2910.795 shows a struggle to break higher. Price previously failed to sustain above the minor resistance zone near 2918–2920, showing rejection wicks. This may indicate buying exhaustion, and if no fresh momentum comes in, price could reverse. 2. Support Weakening: The 2906 support zone has already been tested multiple times. Each retest of this support weakens the buyers' defense. A break and close below 2906 would open doors to deeper pullbacks — potential targets: First target: 2895 (psychological and historical intraday support). Extended target: 2880–2885 zone. 3. Volume Divergence: Noticeable reduction in buying volume on recent attempts to move higher. Without increasing volume, it's hard for price to break out toward 2950. 4. Potential Bearish Formation: Formation of a lower high pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish in this short-term timeframe (H1)
CRYPTO:ETHUSD is currently testing a significant 5 years old lower wedge around ~$2000. Violating this wedge will drive the price down to ~$1600 and ~$1100. A bounce will push the price back to test ~$2500 and ~$2800. DYOR before reacting to the market. #AhmedMesbah
I’m looking for a rejection at the the wick, finding support at the C.E wick. Then let the price run higher to the IRL level.
# **CONTACT Financial Holding | Bullish Reversal from Golden Fibonacci Zone ?** **Ticker**: EGX:CNFN **Timeframe**: 1D **Pattern**: Fibonacci Golden Ratio Reversal + Descending Trendline Breakout ### **? Key Analysis:** - The price has approached the **Golden Fibonacci retracement level (0.618 - 0.705)**, a key area where buyers tend to step in. - There is a strong **historical support zone** aligning with this golden pocket, increasing the probability of a rebound. - The **descending trendline** is acting as resistance. A breakout above this level would confirm the bullish reversal. - **RSI** is at a relatively low level, indicating that the stock may be oversold and primed for a reversal. ### **? Targets:** 1. **4.18 EGP (0.618 Fib Retest)** 2. **4.45 EGP (0.5 Fib Level)** 3. **4.94 EGP (0.382 Fib Resistance)** 4. **6.43 EGP (Major Long-term Target from Previous Highs)** ### **? Stop Loss:** - A break below **3.25 EGP (0.79 Fib Level)** would invalidate the bullish setup. ### **? Bullish Confirmation:** - A breakout above **4.18 EGP** with strong volume. - Positive momentum and RSI turning upwards. If confirmed, this setup presents a **great risk-reward ratio** for a potential upside move. ?? What do you think? Let me know your thoughts in the comments! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE⬇️
Hello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
Based on W and 4H, it sill on uptrend However, due to adjustment, we have to go down in short time frame such as 15M on my view. Thus, in my case, I will take short position 1. Entry: 2913 - 2914 Range 2. Stop Loss: 2923 - 2924 Range (YES, it is quite wide! but I will do risk management for taking all profits based on trend.) 3. Take Profit: 2766 - 2765 Range (YES again! it would be very greedy) I do not like to open short position, usually long position bring more money. On the other hand, I do not want to ignore the signal which show on my view. Anyway, it is my opinion. Hope you guys share your idea as well
Bitcoin is on support and poised to run above $141k Good luck!