A review of price action, setups taken / missed. How we should have approached the market, and an overview of our performance during the day.
? GBP/NZD TRADE PLAN ? Date: April 2, 2025 ? Plan Type: Main Swing Plan ? Bias & Trade Type: Bullish Reversal – D1 Discount Rejection ? Trade Idea: Buying into D1 pullback structure for continuation to weekly range high ? Entry Type: H4 Demand Zone + Liquidity Sweep + FVG Alignment ? Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (80%) Reasons / Confluences: – D1 strong bullish BOS structure still intact – Pullback into clean H4 OB zone + unfilled FVG – 1H wick rejection & MACD weakening bear momentum – Volume compression near discount zone – NZD softening + GBP stable = sentiment favoring GBP ? Status: Waiting for clean LTF confirmation inside zone (1st touch pending) ? Entry Zones: Primary Buy Zone: 2.2575 – 2.2605 (Refined H4 OB with liquidity pocket and imbalance overlap) Secondary Buy Zone: 2.2520 – 2.2540 (Deeper sweep zone below intraday liquidity; last defense) ❗ Stop Loss: SL: 2.2470 (Below OB, last liquidity wick, and invalidation structure) ? Take Profit Targets: TP1: 2.2720 ? (Last minor swing high) TP2: 2.2805 ? (Equal highs + H4 inefficiency) TP3: 2.2890 ? (D1 supply zone & range high) ? Risk:Reward: Minimum R:R = 1:3.1 ? MANAGEMENT STRATEGY: – Risk 1%–2% depending on account type – Once TP1 hits → move SL to BE – Secure partials at TP2 – Let runner target TP3 with trailing SL above structure lows – Re-entry only allowed on fresh confirmation post TP1 ⚠️ Confirmation Criteria: – H1 bullish engulfing or pin bar inside entry zone – Volume uptick on entry candle close – Preferably during London or NY session – Bonus: M15–M30 divergence or inducement confirmation ⏳ Trade Validity: Valid for 2–4 days (HTF swing structure – moderate cycle) ❌ Invalidate if price closes below 2.2470 or H4 BOS to downside ? Fundamentals & Sentiment Confluence: ✅ COT shows GBP neutral-to-positive flow ✅ NZD weakness driven by soft dairy exports + RBNZ dovish tone ✅ Global sentiment = neutral to mild risk-on, favoring GBP cyclical strength ✅ No major red news for either currency in next 24h = ideal execution window ? Final Summary: Looking to buy GBPNZD on a retracement into refined demand zone between 2.2575–2.2605, aligned with D1 bullish structure and H4 rejection confluence. Tight institutional structure, optimal risk curve, and clean invalidation zone. Confirmation required – DO NOT ENTER EARLY. This is a controlled swing entry with >1:3 R:R potential.
A trendline break Metigated an orderflow, broke through a bearish trendline. Bulls showing their strength
The S&P 500 daily chart implies a market in limbo as it goes into the tariff announcements on Wednesday. The price action is going to be 50-50. The last two days found buying coming into the market but will that buying behavior continue on Wednesday.
This pair has been showing us some choppy price action for a little while now with some small price movements but we are finally starting to see some movements Higher Time frames show us a break of support as well as a breakout trade from this Liquidity Trend in the Long Term The Short Term movement Im looking for will be price respecting this Supply zone and sweeping Buy Side Liquidity before taking out our protected Low. I will then refer to my entry model before entering We currently have sellers momentum, also are below the 200 EMA Good luck to the Traders that follow
Hello traders! One of the great legends, OSHO, explains that if the moon has enough power to cause turbulence in the oceans, then why can't it affect human beings thinking and behaviors when the human body is made up of roughly 60% water? OSHO further explains that in history many people have been enlightened and many become mentally disturbed on days like a FULL MOON, and he explained that there must be a connection between planets positions and human behaviors. Now, if it comes to trading SPY based on the moon phases, then I have backtested a few full-moon dates, and I have found something interesting that makes me think of incorporating a full-moon strategy while trading SPY/SPX or any other major index. I am not promoting astrology or abnormal ideas, but I want to share my research with you all because I found a connection and patterns in the behavior of SPY and the full moon. You are not forced to think about astrology in trading, but having knowledge and the ability to see patterns in the world can help you build your intuitive thinking and deep subconscious knowledge. This year, taking Los Angeles as a reference, full moon dates were on Jan 13, Feb 12, and March 13. On January 13, the price showed a bullish run all day with low and high points of about 575.36 and 581.69, respectively. The similar bullish run was observed on February's full moon day, i.e., on 12th February, when SPY showed a low of 598.41 and a high of 604.52, making the market bullish all day. In contrast, we have observed a sharp decline in SPY on March 13, 2025 (full moon), which could seem to invalidate the full-moon strategy, but in the long run, SPY and the SPX Index remain bullish most of the time. Carefully observing previous year (2024) full-moon dates, I have found that SPY opened 4 times gap-up on full moon dates (May 23 2024, July 21 2024 (market off but gap-up next session), October 17 2024, December 15 2024 (market off but gap-up next trading session). 5 times out of 12 were classified as bullish to strongly bullish: January 20 2024 (Bullish after 11:00 AM PST), March 25 2024 (sideways market but bullish overall), April 23 2024 (Bullish), August 19 2024 (bullish), and September 18 2024 (bullish after 9:00 AM PST). The market remains gap-down and bearish two times on February 24 2024, and on November 15 2024. Now, since I have found that the SPX Index remains bullish on most of the FULL MOON dates, and the chances of a gap-up opening on or the next day of the FULL MOON (in case the market is closed on the FULL MOON) are very high based on the results obtained from the PY 2024 and 2025 previous months. The next FULL MOON is on Saturday, 12th April 2025, and the market is closed on this date; therefore, on 14th April 2025, if the market repeats itself, then I can expect SPY to open gap-up, and it would be interesting to see if FULL MOON really has the power to influence the stock market. Let’s give it a try, and on 11th April, 2025, if the market gives signs of huge buying pressure, then I will be buying some calls expiring April 14th, 2025, to test the full moon strategy. I am the only writer of this article, so there are high chances that I might have made some mistakes while publishing. Therefore, I would be happy to see if you can correct me if I'm wrong or if you can share your own knowledge and insights about the relationship between MOON and SPY. Thoughts and comments?
After gold closed the day with a red candle, it has now entered a short term retracing mode. Currently it is holding above 3110 support. If broken, I am expecting it to drop to 3087 today and bounce from there.
quick overview after the close. I wasn't happy with the pump at the end of the day but I still lean bearish for some reasons I discuss.
Since touching the key support level at $67 , WTI crude oil has posted a notable recovery of more than 7% in recent weeks, and is now hovering slightly above the $70 per barrel mark. For now, the bullish bias remains intact as comments from the White House suggest potential tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on countries that choose to trade Russian oil. According to President Trump, Russia has failed to implement a ceasefire in the short term and this could lead to additional tarrifs. Although this new tariff strategy has no official date, if enacted, it could significantly disrupt global oil supply, reinforcing short-term bullish expectations for crude. Wide Sideways Range: For several months now, oil has been moving within a stable sideways range between $81 (resistance) and $67 (support) per barrel. So far, there hasn't been any significant breakout from this channel, making it the dominant structure on the chart in the short term. MACD: The MACD histogram continues to oscillate just above the zero line, but recent sessions have shown slight bearish momentum, possibly signaling a pause in the upward movement as the dominance of the moving averages appears to be neutralizing. TRIX: A similar situation is developing in the TRIX indicator, with the line hovering just below the neutral 0 level. This suggests that the strength of the 18-period moving average has entered a zone of balance, lacking a clear directional force. The behavior of both indicators implies that momentum is gradually weakening as the price approaches resistance levels. Key Levels: $73: A key resistance level located near the midpoint of the sideways range, also aligning with the 200-period moving average. A breakout above this level could trigger a solid short-term bullish trend. $81: A distant resistance level marking the top of the current range. Price action reaching this level could be decisive in confirming a long-term bullish breakout. $67: A significant support level , marking the lower boundary of the range. A return to this level could revive previously dormant bearish pressure and potentially resume a longer-term downtrend that began several weeks ago. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
After gold surged, it showed a pressure pattern. The price reached a high of 3149 and then retreated. After the shock, it continued to decline. Don’t do much if it falls below 3120 in the evening, and be alert to the possibility of a retreat to 3100. In the short term, it means that the bull market has temporarily come to an end and a retreat and adjustment trend has begun.Pay attention to the resistance of 3120 on the hourly chart, and pay attention to the support of 3100 in the short term. It is recommended to operate in the range. Gold operation suggestion: short near the rebound of 3112-3115, stop loss 3120, target 3100