Gold has been on a powerful run since breaking above the 2100 resistance level in March 2024. After just one year of relentless gains and a return of over 60%, it has become one of the top-performing assets. But the big question now is: how far can this rally go? To the moon? It's difficult to predict how far prices can climb during these kinds of parabolic moves. In 2011, the final green monthly bar alone rose 17% from open to high. These FOMO-fueled surges often lead to euphoric tops followed by painful bear markets. So, are we there yet? Since Richard Nixon ended the dollar's gold backing and introduced the modern fiat system, gold's status as a safe haven has become even more prominent. Whenever there are heightened risks, whether geopolitical, fiscal, or related to the fiat money system, investors tend to flock to gold. The 2011 rally was a clear example of this. After the 2008 financial crisis and the quantitative easing that followed, gold became the go-to asset for both preserving value and speculative opportunity. A similar pattern has unfolded following the COVID-19 shock. The Federal Reserve returned to aggressive quantitative easing, while both the Trump and Biden administrations increased fiscal spending, including direct payments to households. This surge in money supply and concerns about fiat stability, along with rising government debt, helped trigger another major gold rally. With the added risk of a trade war, the rally has accelerated further, pushing gold beyond 3300 and creating a situation that closely mirrors 2011. Looking at the money supply-to-gold ratio and the US federal debt-to-gold ratio, gold now appears to be testing trendline levels. Its recent surge has made metrics like M2 and federal debt seem relatively smaller, which may be a sign that the rally is approaching exhaustion. Still, history shows that final euphoric moves can stretch even higher before a true top is formed. Rather than trying to predict the peak, it's often better to wait for signs of price stabilization. Gold typically offers a second opportunity, often forming two peaks with the second lower than the first, before entering a bear phase. In 1980, gold fell more than 60% within two years. After the 2011 top, it declined nearly 40%. Even if the retreat expected to be milder this time, gold could still offer a 20% or greater downside opportunity once the top is in. https://www.tradingview.com/x/WXvJFbrv/ Smart money has already started to take profits gradually. Net managed money positions in the COT report have decreased by 40% since January, as we discussed in our earlier post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/VeF1dAmE-Managed-Money-Selling-Gold-into-Strength-to-Take-Profits/
we expect the price to pullback to the 61.8 which is our second target. we are on B wave on the bigger correction.
This posts presents an idea that has no precedence (that I can recall at least), so this is by definition a crazy idea BUT the chart is showing signs of extreme exhaustion and is possibly and quite frankly on the verge of a potentially destructive collapse. If the recent severe volatility hasn't peaked your attention... this chart should. It's quite simple...we have a MONSTER Head and Shoulders pattern on the Weekly TF...and we're finishing off the Right Shoulder! From a chart pattern perspective, this is ultra-ultra bearish. The confluence we have is the Elliot Wave showing the we could be about to enter Wave 5. Elliot Waves are of course subjective BUT in this case its syncs with the Head and Shoulders. If this was a 15min chart, most would probably agree hands down, but this is a Weekly Chart and represents Trillions on Trillions so its hard to believe that this could even be a possibility.....but I believe it could happen! The horizontal blue lines provide 2024's High and Low Price. For this disaster scenario to be avoided, the Bulls and anyone who cares must defend 2024's low around 16100. This must not be breached, to keep the 12M bullish structure in place. The green shaded areas highlight all of the Buy Side fair value gaps on the WEEKLY TF going back to early January 2023! Could the market dive for these in devastating fashion? Only time will tell. In the interim, we should trade safe and manage risk as best as we can.
USD/CAD is currently forming a bullish reversal setup, which often signals a potential upside move. Right now, the price is testing a key support and a historical demand zone, while also printing a Morning Star candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, which is a classic bullish reversal signal. ⚠️ If buyers hold the trendline and we see a breakout above the recent minor high around 1.3950, we could see a bullish move toward the 1.4050–1.4170 zone. ? ? Trade Setups to Consider: 1️⃣ Aggressive Long (Based on Morning Star Pattern) ? Entry: 1.3915 ? Stop Loss: 1.38143 ? Targets: 1.40248 ➡️ 1.41290 ? What’s your view on USD/CAD? Drop your thoughts below ? #Forex #TradingSetup #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeIdeas #FX #USDCAD #Reversal #MorningStar #CandlestickPatterns #TrendlineSupport
UMB doing similar pattern as some other alts that already pushed up to previous highs (example XRP). We did capitulation dip from accumulation range, are oversold and have longterm bullish divergence. I expect soon bounce up into accumulation range where we need to form support base and then we can expect strong push up to break out of accumulation range. Target is ATH range, where I expect again consolidation - price can pull back from there to fibb 0.618 range.
Last time we looked at the USDCAD pair (March 21, see chart below), we got the most optimal sell entry that easily hit our 1.4000 Target: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/USDCAD/DBZREx6h-USDCAD-Channel-Down-aiming-for-the-1D-MA200/ As the price broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) having made a significant correction since the February 03 High, we believe there is more selling to be made at least on the short-term. That is because the Higher Lows Zone that started on the May 2021 market bottom, hasn't yet been tested and since December 2023, the market always broke inside it before rebounding. As a result, we expect a new rejection on the 1D MA200, delivering a 1.38200 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE ?, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE ? and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ?????? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Hello! Friends, Greetings. Please leave a Like if you like the idea. Before start talking about technical Let's share your LOVE by giving me LIKES to support this work. Thanks in advance.
Hello, TradingView community and my subscribers, please if you like ideas do not forget to support them with your likes and comments, thank you so much and we will start a LONG/BUY outlook on #FETUSDT.P explained
This chart is a technical analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair on a 30-minute timeframe, showing a trading plan with key levels: 1. Entry Point (Short Position): Around 1.13922, marked with a red downward arrow. 2. Stop Loss: Slightly above the green resistance zone (around 1.14000), where the trade would be exited if price moves against the position. 3. Take Profit Levels: First target: Around 1.12887 (horizontal blue line), which seems to be a support level. Second target: Around 1.12612, a deeper support level, suggesting a larger move downward. The overall idea here is a bearish reversal strategy after a price rejection from a resistance zone, anticipating a move back down toward support. Do you want help analyzing whether this setup makes sense in the current market context or would you like help creating a similar plan?
All my trade entry are based on volume and liquidity and that’s what the market respect. I’m currently long on BTCUSD