Setup: Buy at upward channel support 2.22630 Enter on bullish daily candle confirmation at support uptrend still intact Entry/Exit: Entry: When price bounces from channel support Stop Loss: 80-100 pips below channel support TP1: Mid-channel 2.26668 TP2: Upper channel 2.30342
Stock Markets Consolidate Ahead of the Holidays A lull is expected on the financial markets today due to a shortened trading week related to the Easter holiday celebrations. It is reasonable to assume that traders will get a “breather” after a news-heavy April, which caused a volatile “shakeout” in the stock markets. US Stock Markets On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was both cautious and somewhat aggressive in his forecasts regarding US monetary policy, stating that Trump’s tariffs could delay the achievement of inflation targets. In response, US President Donald Trump accused Powell of “playing politics”, hinting at his possible dismissal. European Stock Markets On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in the past 12 months, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde left the door open for further easing. Analysts had expected a rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40%, so the financial markets reacted relatively calmly to the ECB’s decision. Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) On the charts of European and US stock indices today, a narrowing triangle pattern is forming, indicating a balance between supply and demand — in other words, price is more efficiently factoring in all influencing elements. https://www.tradingview.com/x/sSUFNVuG/ On the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the triangle is highlighted in grey. The ADX and ATR indicators are trending downwards, which underlines signs of consolidation. From a bearish perspective, the market is in a downtrend (marked by the red trend channel) — but from a bullish point of view, price is in the upper half of the channel. Although the situation appears “reassuring”, the long weekend may bring a string of high-impact statements from the White House, which could disrupt the balance and lead to a breakout from the triangle. It is not out of the question that the bulls may seize the initiative and challenge the upper boundary of the channel in an attempt to lay the groundwork for an upward trend (shown in blue lines). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SUI is currently in a downward trend, trading below the 30-period SMA, indicating bearish momentum. Price recently broke below a key support zone and is heading toward a broader ascending trendline.
Start of the series here: https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/USDX/70jzFlO3-Global-Market-Overview-Part-1-USDX/ Indices? What about the indices? When the market isn’t an economy, but a chessboard riddled with landmines. As much as we’d like to see rationality reflected in index charts, indices are not the economy. They are derivative instruments that track the capital flow into the largest publicly traded companies. In our case — they serve as a mirror of the U.S. stock market. But here’s the thing: There’s one core principle that most analysts love to forget: Once interest rates are cut — the game flips bullish. Cheap money doesn’t lie idle. It flows straight into corporate balance sheets. And one of the first strategies that gets deployed? Buybacks. Share repurchases are the fastest way to inflate stock prices — without changing the product, the market, or even the strategy. It’s an old Wall Street tune. And it’ll play again the moment Jerome Powell gives the signal to cut. Even if he says, “It’s temporary,” the market won’t care — it’ll act automatically. But what if the cut doesn’t come? What if the Fed drags its feet, and U.S.–China relations fully descend into trade war? What if instead of cheap money, we get a recession? That scenario benefits neither the U.S. nor China. Despite political theatrics, the two economies are deeply intertwined. Much more so than their leaders admit. The unspoken threat from China If Beijing wanted, it could cripple the U.S. economy overnight — Nationalizing all American-owned assets on Chinese soil, from Apple’s factories to Nike’s logistics chains. If that happens, dozens of U.S. corporate stocks would be worth less than toilet paper. But China doesn’t make that move. Because blackmail is not the tool of strategists. Beijing thinks long-term. Unlike Washington, it counts consequences. And it knows: with Trump — you can negotiate. You just have to place your pieces right. Want to understand China? Don’t read a report — read a stratagem. If you truly want to grasp how Beijing thinks, forget Bloomberg or the Wall Street Journal for a minute. Open “The 36 Stratagems” — an ancient Chinese treatise that teaches how rulers think. Not in terms of strong vs. weak — but when, through whom, and against what. You’ll see why no one’s pressing the red button right now: the game isn’t about quarterly wins — it’s about future control. The economy is built for growth. That’s not ideology — that’s axiomatic. Argue all you want about bubbles, fairness, or who started what. One thing never changes: the global economic model is based on growth. No ministry or central statistical agency can stand before a microphone and say, “We want things to fall.” Markets reflect future expectations. And expectations are, by definition, based on belief in growth. Even crashes are seen as temporary corrections, paving the way for recovery. That’s why people always buy the dip. Not retail. Smart money. Because no panic lasts forever — especially when the whole system is backed by cash. The U.S. controls the market through headlines This logic fuels Washington’s strategy. Today, Powell “waits.” Tomorrow, the White House stirs panic with tariff threats. The day after — surprise! “Constructive dialogue.” And just like that: Markets rally, dollar corrects, headlines flip from “crisis” to “hope.” It’s not coincidence. It’s perception management. Markets crash fast — but they rebound just as fast, once a positive signal drops. Especially when that signal touches the U.S.–China trade front. One line — “talks are progressing” — and by nightfall, S&P 500 is back in the green. Why? Because everyone knows: If there’s de-escalation — it’s not a bounce. It’s a new cycle. The recovery scenario Here’s what happens if negotiations progress: The dollar weakens — capital exits safe havens S&P 500 and Nasdaq spike — driven by tech and buybacks Money flows back into risk assets — especially industrials and retail, exposed to international trade Gold and bonds correct — as fear fades We don’t live in an era of stability. We live in an era of narrative control. This isn’t an economic crisis. This is a crisis of faith in market logic. But the foundation remains: capital seeks growth. And if growth is painted via headlines, buybacks, or a surprise rate cut — the market will believe. Because it has no other choice. In the markets, it’s not about who’s right — It’s about who anticipates the shift in narrative first.
OANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, signaling strong bullish momentum. The price has consistently respected the channel boundaries, forming higher highs and higher lows, which aligns with the continuation of the uptrend. It has recently broken above a key resistance zone and is now pulling back for a retest. This area previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. If buyers confirm support at this level, the price is likely to move upward toward the $3,600 level, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This setup reflects the potential for further bullish movement as buyers continue to dominate the market. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong rejection wicks from the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
The recent events initiated by the POTUS destroyed all the trust in the global market structor. Uncertainty is the worst for Markets, trust is the key for investors to risk money and that is getting lost day by day. If the course is not changed it is likely that we do see a sideway action for the next 6-7years till the dust settles. Nothing big to gain only a lot to loose at the moment.
//@version=5 indicator("Options Buy Signals (Calls & Puts)", overlay=true) // === INPUTS === rsiSource = close rsiLength = input.int(14, title="RSI Length") rsiOverbought = input.int(70, title="Overbought Level") rsiOversold = input.int(30, title="Oversold Level") smaLength = input.int(20, title="SMA Length") // === CALCULATIONS === rsi = ta.rsi(rsiSource, rsiLength) sma = ta.sma(close, smaLength) // === SIGNAL CONDITIONS === buyCall = ta.crossover(rsi, rsiOversold) and close > sma buyPut = ta.crossunder(rsi, rsiOverbought) and close < sma // === PLOT SIGNALS === plotshape(buyCall, title="Buy Call Signal", location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, text="CALL") plotshape(buyPut, title="Buy Put Signal", location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="PUT") // === ALERT CONDITIONS === alertcondition(buyCall, title="Buy Call Alert", message="Potential Buy Call Opportunity") alertcondition(buyPut, title="Buy Put Alert", message="Potential Buy Put Opportunity")
The Dollar Index is drifting at the key 99.5 mark. This strategic support level, which has held since early 2024, is on the verge of collapsing. Let’s be clear: this isn’t just about the strength of the dollar. What’s at stake is the monetary sovereignty of the United States, caught between inflation, politics, and election-season hysteria. And make no mistake — this has nothing to do with technical analysis. What we’re witnessing is a fundamental fire, and Donald Trump and his administration are fanning the flames. Powell: “Rates remain unchanged.” But for how long? Just days ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered what seemed to be a firm message: “We are in a wait-and-see mode. Cutting rates prematurely could do harm.” “If inflation accelerates, more difficult decisions may follow.” On the surface — classic hawkish rhetoric. But in reality, this isn’t resolve. It’s a delay tactic. Even Powell admits: “The labor market is walking a fine line.” “Economic growth weakened in Q1.” “Business sentiment is deteriorating.” “Tariff policy could lead to stagflation.” “Political pressure is mounting by the week.” The Fed says, “It’s too early to cut rates.” But the market hears something entirely different: “We’re getting close.” Trump applies pressure Ahead of the elections, Trump declares: “If we don’t cut rates now, we’ll lose to China, Europe, and our own markets.” This isn’t just campaign rhetoric. It’s an open challenge to the Fed’s independence. And history already tells us what happens when Trump applies pressure — 2019 rate cuts proved he can break through Powell’s defenses. What the charts are saying The Dollar Index (USDX) is locked in a persistent downward channel. The 103.0 support zone has been broken The 101.17 level remains the final significant support 99.5 is already being tested as a potential sell-off trigger Below that — only air until 98.0 and 97.5 The technical setup confirms a fundamental truth: The market no longer believes in the dollar’s strength. What if the Fed actually cuts rates? If the Fed moves to cut, USDX will break below 99 and enter a systemic phase of weakening. Capital will flow into gold (as if it hasn’t already gone far enough), oil, crypto, and high-yield emerging markets. The United States will lose its competitive edge in monetary policy, and the dollar will slowly cease to function as the global anchor it once was. Powell can talk tough all he wants. The market is no longer listening. The Dollar Index isn’t dropping because rates are already cut — it’s falling because everyone knows it’s just a matter of time. U.S. monetary policy has lost the initiative, and market expectations have taken over. Today, the Fed rate is no longer a tool of control. It’s a signal of approaching capitulation. The question is no longer “Can we hold 99.5?” The real question is: “What happens after it breaks?” Manipulation or strategy? Black swans on a leash Powell’s rate policy, DXY charts, inflation forecasts — all of it loses clarity when the dominant market force is no longer economics, but politics. We live in an era where markets break not from bad data, but from tweets, briefings, and backroom deals — moves that only reveal themselves in the charts after the fact. That’s what makes the current cycle the most toxic in the last 15 years. Markets aren’t just volatile — they’ve become irrational. Trade war: scalpel in a surgeon’s hand or a bat in a brawler’s grip? Tariffs aren’t new. But in Trump’s hands, they’ve evolved — from macroeconomic tools to blunt political weapons. He uses them as battering rams — to force concessions, corner opponents, and set up ideal conditions for insider gains. The market reacts exactly as you’d expect: Tariffs announced — indexes fall Panic ensues — capital flees into dollars and gold Within 48 hours — videos surface of Trump and his allies joking about the “hundreds of billions” they made during the crash This isn’t conspiracy. It’s already triggered official investigations, but everyone knows: the odds of accountability are near zero. And that’s the biggest risk for fundamental analysis today: It’s powerless against narratives crafted behind closed doors. So who’s really running the market? Trump is deliberately deflating the bubble. Loudly. Dramatically. On camera. But the goal isn’t destruction. It’s control. And while Powell fears making a mistake, Trump fears only one thing — losing control of the narrative. The market is no longer a field for rational actors. It has become a battlefield, where officials already understand: You can control more than just money through the market — you can shape public consciousness. How not to lose your footing in this chaos? We’ll break it down in the next part of the Global Market Overview. Stay tuned.
AUD/CAD Short Trading Plan (Daily Timeframe) Simple Setup: Wait for price to approach and test the 20-day SMA (currently around 0.88419) Look for a clear rejection from this level, shown by a bearish daily candle Major resistance zone: moving average, and resistance retest Break of support level Entry: Enter short on daily close below 0.88419 after MA rejection or bearish candle Stop Loss: Place stop 80 pips above entry or just above the 0.9000 resistance Take Profit: TP1: 0.8620 TP2: 0.8510 Key Rules: Only enter if daily candle shows clear rejection from SMA Maintain 1:2 risk-reward ratio minimum Be patient and wait for proper setup on daily timeframe Monitor daily close for confirmation
Pinning after exhaustion of sales. ?I enter at the market price. I'll let you know when I record it manually. ‼️Risk per trade: 1% of the allocated funds for spot trading. Thank you!