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Here on ltcusd price form a triangle pattern and now broken line 113.401816 which means it will continue to fall and trader should go for short with expected profit target of 88.660186 and 72.317090 . Use money management
Key Observations 1. Head and Shoulders Pattern: A clear head and shoulders formation is identified, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder well-defined. The neckline is slightly sloping and serves as a key support level. A breakdown below this line would confirm the bearish pattern. 2. Measured Move: The measured move is calculated by taking the distance between the head and the neckline and projecting it downward. This aligns with a major support zone below the neckline and suggests further downside if confirmed. 3. Indicators: RSI: Currently below the midline, indicating weakening bullish momentum and leaning bearish. OBV (On-Balance Volume): Trending downward, signaling reduced accumulation and fading buying pressure. Volume: No significant spikes near the neckline yet, meaning confirmation of a breakdown is still pending. 4. Fibonacci Levels: The retracement levels suggest key support zones below the measured move target. A deeper correction could align with these levels if momentum accelerates. Scenarios Bullish: A strong rebound from the neckline and a breakout above the nearest resistance level (right shoulder region) would invalidate the head and shoulders, paving the way for a continuation of the prior uptrend. Bearish: A confirmed breakdown below the neckline triggers the measured move, with price potentially heading toward the calculated target. A further breakdown beyond this level could align with deeper retracement zones. Recommendation Monitor the neckline closely for a breakout or breakdown. Look for volume confirmation to validate the move. Lack of volume could indicate a false breakout/breakdown. Use the measured move target for planning potential entries/exits and manage risk accordingly.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: I’d love to see bitcoin below 70000 in Q1 2025 and MicroStrategy file for bankruptcy in 2025. I think this would be fun. Yes. Market made almost 600% from the 2022-12 low and about 62% of it after Trump was elected again. The bull trend before that, was from 2020 to 2021 where btc made about 1700% - followed by a 77% drop. It’s therefore a reasonable target to assume that btc could half again. The tricky part is always the time frame. By now you should have picked up my bearish bias for 2025 and given the previous correlation to other markets, bitcoin won’t be the safe haven every other crypto bro on x is telling you it will be. 50% retracement would bring us to roughly 65000, which is close enough to many big magnets. Previous ath from 2021, big bull trend line, the breakout retest area and the monthly 20ema which we have not touched since 2023-10. My preferred target would be 32000 but that’s a bit much to ask for as of now. As long as market is holding above 90000, bulls are safe and in control of the market. Once we drop below, I highly doubt there will be many bulls willing to hold through a deep pullback down to 70000, which I expect the selling to accelerate greatly below 90000. What are the odds of another higher high above 108000? Not bad but I think if bulls would have been strong enough for it, they would have gotten it over the holidays. If they manage to retest 108k, my max target for this is roughly 110000. Anything above would surprise me. current market cycle: Bull trend from 2022 is still ongoing but I think we saw the last leg ending at 108367. Market can retest that high and maybe make a higher one but I think the upside potential is very limited. key levels for 2025: 60000 - 110000 bull case: I always try to give a balanced outlook but I don’t have anything for the bulls. 108k was so stretched and peak bubble behavior that it’s pure guesswork if this was the high or not. Technically the shown chart has two trend lines that could reach 115k and market can always overshoot on a spike. I just highly doubt it will happen but I have been wrong before about tops and I can be on this one as well. Invalidation is below 90000. I can not see bulls scaling into this because a pullback could easily test down to 75000 or lower. bear case: The pain trade is to the downside. There is no arguing about that fact. Only issue for bears is that bubbles can go on for longer than anyone’s account can handle. So selling right now with a stop 109k is reasonable but most bears want more confirmation. Below 90000 more bulls have to cover and this will accelerate down. My targets in order are the breakout retest around 75000 and if things get bad enough there, we go down to the 50% pullback and the bull trend line at 62500. There I expect the market to go sideways for more time and depending on how we get there, we can estimate new targets above or below. Invalidation is above 115000 short term: My bearish bias for 2025 is low probability until bears can close consecutive daily bars below 90000. Right now the market is in a trading range near the ath and bulls remain in control. I would not initiate shorts as of now and rather wait for confirmation or another lower high above 105k medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good. current swing trade: None
The correction of the daily short impulse on H4 forms the minor long that that is valid. The main H4 breakdowns (aqua) and the daily breakdown zone (orange) are the targets of this long trend, but it is a minor one, so it can turn south any time, and if the H4 impulse base is crossed down significantly, the next targets become valid in the short countertrend. ——— Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated. ——— We may not know what will happen, but we can prepare ourselves to respond effectively to whatever unfolds. Stay grounded, stay present. ??♂️ Your comments and support are appreciated! ??
This Instrument is on the uptrend move, bulls have shown their super powers in place.... check for entries and exits in H4 and refine in H1. Thank you.
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Probably the most boring outlook to write. Oil has been in a triangle since 2023-09 and we will see a bigger breakout in 2025. To which side? Absolutely no idea. Oil has been stuck inside a 10% range for the past 10 weeks and it’s almost not possible that the range contracts further. We have nested triangles and the biggest of those can play out a couple of more weeks. It’s always possible that the pattern fails and market could just continue sideways for longer. Since I don’t have a crystal ball, I do not have an opinion on where this could break out. Market is in total balance around 69. I will continue to take this market level by level and play the given range. Since neither side has any arguments for their case, I won’t write a bull/bear case for this. If you don’t like trading ranges, just don’t trade this. current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple time frames) key levels for 2025: 65 - 75 short term: I won’t make up stuff. Market is as neutral as it gets. Clear support 66/67 and clear resistance 70.5 / 72.3 medium-long term: Nope to the nopedy nope. Go follow some macro schmackro dude who tells the world Oil will go to 100$ again because of *insert hypothetical macro event*. current swing trade: None
Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: If you have read part 1 of 2, much of the following will be the same. Nasdaq has now gained 80%+ since the 2022-10 lows. Again, if you think it’s more likely that we will do another 15%+ up next year because this time it’s different, I don’t have much for you and you can stop reading now. Now matter how you draw the bull trend since, it has had at least 3 clear big legs up where the last one was the shortest with the least pull-backs. The confirmation for it to end would be consecutive daily closes below 20800. For now bears have not had two consecutive weekly bear bars since September. The trend is overdone to say the least. As for dax and sp500, a 20% correction would bring us down to big previous support 2024-04 and 2024-08 at 17900. My first medium-term target would be the big bull trend line, which is overlapping a fair bit with the monthly 20ema. The trend line is around 19700-20000 and the monthly 20ema is currently at 18900. For the near term I expect the market to get it’s second leg down early in 2025 and potential targets are the 50% pb of the last bull leg and the previous ath from 2024-07 which would bring us to 20400-20650. current market cycle: Bull trend of the past two years has likely ended and new lows below 20900 will be the confirmation, at least to me. Technically only a break of the big bull trend line would confirm it (around 19700 currently) key levels for 2025: 17800 - 22500 (decent chance we will see 20000 only in the first couple of weeks and then only in a couple of months or years again) bull case: Bull trend is technically over once we break below the bull trend line which is currently 19600. Bulls are still very far above that and trading above the weekly 20ema. They remain in control for now but after such a long ongoing rally they are trading the momentum only because stonkz can only go up eh. I really don’t have much for the bulls here. We could do another try of 22000 and above and even print a new ath but the upside will probably be very limited. Don’t expect bullish outlooks from me over the next weeks. I will only scalp long on big support. The best outcome for bulls that I see is sideways above 20000. Anything below will accelerate to the downside. Invalidation is below 17400. Below that price, an event has happened or is happening. For now it’s unreasonable to ever think this market could see prices below 15000 again. bear case: In order, my first big target for the bears for 2025 is 19000, where I expect more sideways movement. Below 19000 comes 18000 which was previous support and the lowest I can see this for now is 17400. Bears would need stronger follow through below 21500 early in January and then make new lows below 20900. Then I see the odds of a measured move down to 19500-20000 as decent. On my weekly chart you can see my preferred path forward for the next months. 3 legs down where leg 1 was the drop from 22450 to 21000. I do think it’s much more likely to expect a break of the dashed bull trend line than another leg up. Invalidation is above 22600. short term: The year end rally was stopped short at 22110 and I don’t think bulls have enough strength to go above it Monday/Tuesday. We could see a spike up after new years but if we close 2024 below 21500, I expect the spike to be sold as well. If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%. My short term target for the bears is 21000 and lowest for now is 20700 for me. If 20700 is not bigger support, 20300 is my next target. medium-long term: As stated above, “If we don’t trade above 22000 by 2025-01-03, I see the odds that the top is in at 70%.”. In that case, my bear targets medium term are 19000 and long term lowest target as of now, is 17400. Anything above 22500 would surprise me. current swing trade: I will initiate longer term shorts depending on next weeks price action. Any short would need a stop with at least 22600.
Bitcoin Heading toward to 70K, On Daily TF CISD, But Monthly Candle Also Closing in Previous Candle Range. No More Bullrun
This is a potential trade of a lifetime. Long term yields have gone up since the Fed started cutting. Although counter intuitive, this is what they do most of the time. The future cuts are going to be bull steepening (i.e. we are close to if not at the bottom for ). Although the Fed says it will cut less in 2025 let’s look at the factors that could make them wrong (TWW, They have always been wrong) 1) Continuous jobless claims and unemployment are going steadily up. The Fed will panic if this trend continues. 2) Inflation is still in a downtrend and the worldwide data suggests it will keep going down. Trump's policy can be inflationary but like any administration, they will take time to implement them and will not likely affect the data right way. Besides, Trumps want tariffs but low inflation and low interest rates (You can't have your cake and eat it too). Regardless, this is why I am not predicting further than the end of 2025 at this point. 3) The economy appears to grow strong, but the USA can't be isolated from the rest of the world for ever. The European and China problems are going to affect the growth. 4) The stock market is overvalued so a big correction in 2025 is very likely. In which case, money will flow in bonds and the Fed will intervene. 5) Long term yields in other countries (Germany, Canada, Switzerland, China...) Have started to go down. The USA is just a bit late because the Fed is slow to react and still hawkish, but my bet is… not for long. 6) The US Dollar is super strong. What will the Fed attempt to do? Keep the interest differential between them and other countries low (i.e. drop interest rates) How much can this be worth? Lets say you have $13,000 and buy one UB1! Contract that you roll over throughout the year (You need about $8,000 of margin so you have $5,000 to cushion a potential fall below the October 2023 low, where I suggest you put your stop loss). If it reaches the $181’06 level, you make approximately $62,968 or 484% on your $13,000 over 9 to 12 months and you risked only $5,000. If by any chance it reaches the $209’20 level, you make approximately $91,093 or 701% on your $13,000 over 9 to 12 months and you risked only $5,000. If you don’t like futures, you could do a similar trade using NASDAQ:TLT although it will be a bit less impressive but also less risky. I'll let you do the math. Note: This is not a financial advice, trading comes with risks. Expected results are not guaranteed results. This is only an opinion, take it for what it is.