1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PTON Ambiguous at $9, 2025 R/R poor - have followed this yoga pants-wearing, starbucks guzzling, taylor swift blastin' name for some time - first, the balance sheet/ net debt levels require some obvious cash flow generation to be neutralized... especially after a 2.5-3x move from floor - on one hand the marginal change in sales (from -ve to +ve, probably in 4Q) is already baked in the calorie-free, guilt-free cake. - and EBITDA mgn already forecasted at DD for this year and next, with not much expansion on the top line (which will at this stage take at LEAST 2-3 Q's - probably more - to get visibility on and materially alter real mkt consensus). - so even if i assume 200 mm in 2026 fcf (another 20% bump to already likely bullish #s, i can only get to mid 3's - and for a lot of risk on a stretched out maxed out dopamine busted consumer). "yes" their B2B biz is awesome - top of the line - i love it. i do think mgmt gets a B+ all in... - but friends don't let friends buy high teens EBITDA multiples for low DD's EBITDA growth on tough balance sheets, a name that's already worked (just don't chase it!) and a not-need-to-own name. if u like consumer discretionary just own NYSE:YETI , which is hard enough to own in this environment, but such a low-key sleep-at-night no bears in yo food middle of the night name). as you can tell it's late. i'm reviewing some oldies i've never written up. maybe a bit more wit. excuse the hyperbole (i'm not restricted in terms of my investment committee anymore so i let it rip these days). be well
plain and simple market structure break. Subject to levels.
Understanding trading strategies and effective risk management is crucial for success in the financial markets. For example, in the case of USD/JPY trading, the buy point is set at 158.20, with take-profit levels at 158.70, 159.50, and 160.80. These levels represent potential targets where traders may exit positions to secure profits. At the same time, a stop-loss point at 157.00 acts as a safeguard to limit losses in case the market moves unfavorably. Such measures are essential because trading involves inherent risks, and no strategy guarantees success. To navigate the markets effectively, traders must continuously learn and adapt, updating their knowledge and refining their strategies based on market changes and trends. Diversifying investments is another critical step to mitigate risks. For instance, relying on multiple instruments or markets reduces the potential impact of a single adverse movement. Additionally, tools like stop-loss orders provide an automated way to protect capital by exiting trades when a predetermined loss limit is reached. This approach aligns with the principle of never risking more than you can afford to lose. Successful trading requires discipline, patience, and an analytical mindset. By setting realistic goals and adhering to a structured plan, traders can make informed decisions and adapt to evolving conditions. Risk management is the foundation of long-term success, allowing traders to weather losses while capitalizing on profitable opportunities. Above all, consistency and a willingness to learn from both successes and failures are key to achieving growth and resilience in the financial markets.
Gold has reached a critical juncture, encountering significant resistance at a major price level. This marks a pivotal moment for the precious metal, as traders closely monitor whether it will break through this barrier or reverse course. The outcome at this level could shape the trajectory of gold's movement in the near term, reflecting market sentiment and broader economic influences.
GT + FIB + previous high. Fibonacci Retracement Bounce: The price is bouncing near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is a common support zone in an uptrend. This suggests buyers are stepping in at this level. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: The trade setup shows a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (~4:1), with the potential upside significantly larger than the downside. Bullish Structure: The price has been making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a clear uptrend on the 4-hour chart. Consolidation Near Support: The price appears to be consolidating near a strong support zone (~$7.40), which could act as a launching point for further upward movement. Breakout Potential: If the price clears the resistance near $7.80–$8.00, there’s a potential move toward $9.00 and above (a 22% upside as indicated on the chart).
Events to pay attention to today: 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes EURUSD: On Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined against the US dollar, falling by four-tenths of a percentage point after a failed recovery to 1.04000. The pair is currently trading below last week's 26-month low, but the difference is minimal. Market analysts are optimistic about a reversal, as the Federal Reserve continues to recover towards 1.02000. The European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was published in line with expectations, with the annual HICP for the year ending December rising slightly to 2.4% y/y from the previous reading of 2.2%.However, much of the upward pressure in European inflation figures appears to be either embedded in older figures or related to non-structural items, giving Euro traders some hope that things will continue to improve. In contrast, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business activity survey and the ISM Services price data for December were both weaker than expected, raising concerns among market participants that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be able to deliver as many rate cuts in 2025 as investors had originally anticipated. In the US, the agenda for the upcoming trading session includes the release of December ADP employment change data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. While ADP employment data is not considered a reliable predictor of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, traders are not overreacting to significant deviations from forecasts.Investors will be looking for any indications that could potentially lead to a rate cut before June, which includes a notable softening of the labour market. Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Gold Trading Analysis (XAUUSD): The XAUUSD (Gold/US Dollar) trading setup focuses on a sell position with specific entry and exit points. Below is the breakdown of the strategy, followed by essential trading principles: 1. Sell Position: Initiate a sell order at 2647, targeting price decreases. 2. Take Profit Levels: First target at 2640, aiming for modest gains. Second target at 2630, consolidating further profits. Third target at 2610, maximizing returns. 3. Stop-Loss: A stop-loss order is placed at 2664 to cap potential losses. 4. Risk Management: Never risk more capital than you can afford to lose in a single trade. Essential Trading Principles: 1. Learn and Adapt: Continuously educate yourself to refine strategies. Stay updated with market trends and geopolitical factors influencing gold prices. 2. Discipline: Stick to your plan, even when emotions arise during trading sessions. 3. Risk Mitigation: Employ tools like stop-loss orders to limit losses effectively. 4. Diversification: Spread investments across different instruments to reduce risk exposure. 5. Patience: Wait for optimal entry points and avoid impulsive decisions. 6. Data Analysis: Use technical and fundamental analysis to support your trades. 7. Market Awareness: Understand external factors like interest rates, inflation, and economic indicators affecting gold prices. 8. Control Emotions: Avoid letting greed or fear dictate decisions. 9. Record Keeping: Document trades to analyze and improve over time. 10. Consistent Review: Regularly evaluate your trading plan and adapt as needed. By following this approach, traders can build a structured and disciplined trading strategy while managing risk effectively.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/20kHOaok/ GBPCAD forms one more bearish pattern on a 4H time frame after a retest of a recently broken neckline of a head & shoulders pattern on a daily. Chances are high that the price will go down and reach at least 1.7876 level. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NVO Probs a buy in low 80s... but... Friend who highlighted some good calls last year DM'd me (ty!) about this one. Figured i'd copy/paste my response in case anyone could add to this logic or is more knowledgeable on catalysts timing etc. 1/ i typically stay away from pharma (mainly bc i look at so many sectors and this is the singular one i've never covered professionally) 2/ the financials look great. growth, margins, cf generation - all "A" grade 3/ unclear how the NASDAQ:SAVA result will affect px performance in the coming days given diabetes seems to be a relevant part of the portfolio (but obviously this is a mega diversified name) so in short, it's defn a buy here, but given my conviction on maybe 5 other names that i can really size up, i've set an even greedier entry look closer to sub $80... not that i'd not own it here, but just i don't want to overcomplicate my book at the moment while i'm moving/ shaking aggressively on other stuff. 4/ also, what the banana hammock happened on dec 19 - unlocking that "event's bottom"/ implication looks like the key to determining how low this goes. it's already massively oversold, so if it wicks much further, it's simply a buy on mean reversion anyway - could probably pick up an easy 5+% under $80 without even trying (which is my lazy approach here). but i don't fault u if u own it - looks legit. 5/ options chain implying meager MT move keeps me wondering if this is dead money for the immediate term and i should only be a greedy buyer in the mid 70s. i think there's a way to generate yield here, but feels too risk adverse for my style (high octane) until i can gear it up at these lower levels with a better sense for mkt rippity-do-dah so - what do u think, anon? V
so far we we have confirmed downtrend in nasdaq by force selling from last two trading days my idea for short trading in NQ/MNQ target sell area from 21487-97 targeting 21020 area CME_MINI:MNQ1! https://www.tradingview.com/x/inUwh1xA/