https://www.tradingview.com/x/dnXmb28H/ Macro outlook for the remainder of the week Upcoming News US NFP at 430pm Fri USD downside Bad NFP report USD upside Good NFP report News review Liberation Day - Full-scale tariff were definitely not a good thing for the USD as investor fear of it causing a recession is currently outweighing the potential of keeping interest rates high to prevent inflation from running hot. Price has voted this way, so let's keep with it. The risk to this thesis is if Powell comes out and convinces the market that he will focus on inflation over all else and take a hard stance similar to volcker. Then we switch fundamental views. Technical view Breakout of the previous levels at 1.0954 With NFP coming up, I'm looking for a retrace back to near the breakout level before it, then take a high RR bet for the trend to continue to the upside. Timeframe of bet → Till Friday around NFP Price level of interest → 1.099 to 1.0954 Execution Price alert set Look for price to touch the area, and reverse SL: 1.093 for now. Will be determined based of reversal candle and what's the low of the retracement move. TP: Highs of 1.11 Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 1 WR: 0% Profit: -0.1R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts. Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too ? There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below. Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video: 00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds 02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out 06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook 12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait 20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked 25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About 36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning? ? If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story. Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks https://www.tradingview.com/x/cq405yHb/ History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes. Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect. We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore. I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market. Market Phases Since 1986 https://www.tradingview.com/x/Fz23QGz3/ This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of: ? Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly. ? Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype. ? Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers. ? Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads. If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years. You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest. Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps https://www.tradingview.com/x/ETjdj2CI/ This is where it gets juicy. The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters. Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests. Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months. There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s. The 2025 Outlook https://www.tradingview.com/x/HVfWL0ek/ Here’s how I’m approaching this year: ✅ Bearish bias under 105 ? Targets at 100, 95, and 90 ? Trap door under 86 if volume is thin Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points. If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable. ?️ Let’s Sharpen Together Do you see this unfolding the same way? Do you disagree with the 80 target? Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade! Stay safe, ⚠️ Risk Disclaimer This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
Gold is now at a high point on the daily chart, and a rebound is an opportunity for shorts. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn downward, and the bulls have suffered heavy losses. After the rebound is repaired, shorts can only continue. The support below the range of gold 1 hour ago was 3135. Now the rebound is under pressure for the second time, so the short-term suppression of gold at 3135 has formed an effective suppression. The US market rebounds at 3135 and continues to short. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for gold today is to short on rebounds and to buy on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3135-3138 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3054-3066 line of support. Short position strategy: When gold rebounds to around 3133-3135, short 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3105-3085, break to 3065; Long position strategy: When gold pulls back to around 3065-3068, long 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3090-3100, break to 3110;
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast – Potential Breakdown Ahead? Key Observations: ? Strong Support Retest: Bitcoin is currently testing a major support zone around $81,350 - $81,000. ? Bearish Momentum: The price has been in a steady downtrend, struggling to hold above key moving averages. ? Breakdown Potential: If Bitcoin fails to hold this support, we could see further downside towards $80,046, and possibly as low as $77,685. Possible Scenarios: ? Bearish Case: A clear break below $81,000 could accelerate selling, leading to a drop towards $80,000 or lower. ? Bullish Case: If BTC holds this support and forms a reversal pattern, we might see a bounce back towards $83,000+. ⚠️ Watch for confirmation! A breakdown could trigger strong bearish momentum! ? What’s your outlook for BTC? Will it hold or break down further? Let me know in the comments! ?? #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
Today, Trump's policy of reciprocal tariffs has been officially implemented. The gold market, which has been overly hyped, has witnessed the fulfillment of a risk event, and the concentrated closing of long positions has triggered a deep correction. Spot gold prices plummeted from the high of $3,167.71 per ounce in the early Asian trading session. It touched a low of $3,054 per ounce, with an intraday amplitude of over $110, completing the technical action of building a top. The leading institutional investors have precisely taken advantage of the market psychology of "buying on the news and selling on the fact" and completed the long position layout before the tariff policy was implemented. Their operation method is quite typical: first, they attract retail investors to take over the shares through a pulsed upward pull. Subsequently, they adopt a three-stage washing method of "plunge - consolidation - second plunge", completely breaking the recent upward oscillation pattern in the Asian and European trading sessions. This method is identical to the top formations in history on many occasions, and its purpose is precisely to create panic selling and trap the chips that chased the high prices. Technically, a clear top signal has emerged in the daily chart of gold. Currently, the decline has exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the price has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the medium - term trend may reverse. However, it should be noted that this round of adjustment has not yet completed the complete five - wave structure. In the future, we need to focus on the guidance of tomorrow's non - farm payrolls data on the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies, as well as whether the weekly closing price can confirm the head pattern. John suggests that it's advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. One should get involved only after the trend stabilizes. Pay attention to the resistance levels above at 3118 and 3130, and the support levels below at 3100 and 3085. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
As per our plan every rise is being sold till it sustained above 23400 hence we will stand by our analysis of selling the rise and unless it sustains itself above 23400 the trend will not be changed so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching.
Gold is now covered by dark clouds at its daily high level, and a rebound will give shorts an opportunity. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn downward, and the bulls have suffered a heavy blow. After the rebound is repaired, the only way to go short is to continue. The support below the range of gold 1 hour ago was 3135. Now the US market rebounded and was under pressure for the second time, so the short-term support of gold at 3135 has formed an effective suppression. The US market rebounded at 3135 and continued to go short under pressure. Today's short-term gold operation ideas suggest that rebounding is the main focus, and callbacks are supplemented by longs. The upper short-term focus is on the 3135-3138 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3054-3066 first-line support. Short position strategy: Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3133-3135, stop loss 6 points, target around 3105-3085, and look at 3065 if it breaks; Long position strategy: Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3065-3068, stop loss 6 points, target around 3090-3100, and look at 3110 if it breaks;
? Market Structure: Gold was moving in an ascending channel, but price has now broken below the support trendline. This suggests a possible trend reversal or correction. ? Key Levels: Resistance : $3,125 - $3,170 Support: $3,054 - $3,035 Target: $3,000 - $2,995 ? Trade Idea: A pullback to support-turned-resistance could give a short entry. Bearish target: $3,000 if rejection holds. Invalidation: If price reclaims $3,125. ? Watch for: Price reaction at the former channel support. Possible retest before further drop. Let me know if you need any modifications! ?
Hello traders, this is the XAUUSD 15m pivot resistance zone. Based on the market trend and previous day's action, candles taking resistance at the pivot S1 level (3111.49)indicate a short-term intraday sell bias. Trading ideas Entry: 3104 Target: 3084 Stop loss: 3114 Risk Reward Ratio 1:2 Note; Intraday view only Your likes and boosts motivate us to keep learning and sharing ideas!
The markets are not taking Trump’s new round of tariffs lightly. As the S&P 500 dips sharply, investors are reacting to the growing tension between the U.S. and China over trade policy. The new tariffs have ignited fears of a prolonged trade war, sending shockwaves through tech-heavy sectors and dragging major names like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , and NASDAQ:AMZN deep into the red. ? What we're seeing: SP500 is breaking recent support with heavy volume. Tech sector is leading the sell-off, especially chipmakers and global exporters. Uncertainty is pushing investors toward safety, further increasing volatility. ? Key takeaway: This is more than a dip—it’s policy risk priced in real time. Until there's clarity, traders should prepare for more erratic moves. Short-term sentiment has clearly flipped bearish. ? Are you buying the fear or staying out of the storm?