Today I exited my call options, earlier than planned. I had originally planned on exiting my calls sometime before the market opened premarket, New York, on Thursday. But the two days of short covering has led to such a massive move that it prompted me to take my profits early. Fundamentally I am looking at the same thing the big boys are looking at. The artic cold is here, production is down because of freeze offs, LNG at historic rates, big EIA withdrawal tomorrow, contract rollover Tuesday, yada, yada, yada (sounding like a broken record already!) But this is what has moved the price, plus the shorts being squeezed for the last two days (can't wait to see the COT report Friday!) And NG traders love to sell the rally. So with the expected warm up next week, and the weekend approaching, I have been talking about selling my positions ahead of the mass exit before Friday. So I always keep the phrase in the back of my head, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered!" So I think a $1.00 move in the price is rich enough for me. So I exited my positions this afternoon. As planned, I entered into a 5 block of $4.250 putts that I will hold over the weekend. I am expecting the price to fall back to 3735 level, which is at the 9D SMA on the NGH25 contract. At which time I plan to exit. I continue to believe that the market is a bit over extended at the moment. The price has moved above the upper SD of the BB on the continuous contract, and blowing past the 3 SD level of the BB on the current contract. On the continuous contract the 100% fib level has been reached, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, and beginning to show signs of divergence, and the RSI on the current month contract is way into overbought territory. I am firmly in belief that March will be colder than averages, but it must be remembered that the days are getting longer and the HDD going lower. We are five weeks out from the end of the withdrawal season and spring will eventually come. But fundamentally we are in a different place than the previous two years, and can expect higher pricing going into the shoulder season. Which I will begin to discuss in a few weeks. But for now, I took my profits, will ride the price down with the warmer weather coming next week, and will reenter sometime the middle of next week, probably right before next weekend. These have been fantastic weekends to hold over, if your taking the correct position! Which I believe is the case this weekend also. So good luck and fortunes to all. Keep it Burning!
? APTUSDT Analysis & Signal ? ? Market Condition: Distribution Phase ? ? Timeframe: 4H (Heikin Ashi) ? Entry: Around 6.80 - 7.00 USDT ? Target 1: 10.50 USDT ? Target 2: Higher breakout possible ❌ Stop Loss: 4.49 USDT ? Analysis: APTUSDT appears to be breaking out of an accumulation zone, but given the strong resistance above, we could be entering a distribution phase. If price struggles to break above 7.00-7.50 USDT and starts forming lower highs, we might see a rejection and a potential drop back to the range lows. ? If the price holds above 7.00, it could push towards 10.50. ? If rejection happens, expect a retest of 6.30 - 6.50 support zone. ? Risk Management: ? If price fails to sustain momentum, trailing stop recommended. ? Monitor volume—decreasing volume near resistance signals weakness. ? React & Engage! Your feedback motivates us to share more signals! ?? ⚠️ Not a financial advice! do your own research as well
Smalls caps seems to be building a base in which momentum will play out sharply one way. The million dollar question is which direction that momentum releases. In instances like this I don't hate the idea of being long premium (straddle). EMA stack is bullish so probability favors the bulls. We will see how this plays out in the days/weeks to come.
This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Some USA economic news today: US : Unemployment Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary: Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation. Key Risks: A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness. Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks. 4H Chart Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/fvfsh6CD/ 1️⃣ ?Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) ?INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply) ?INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%) ?Swing Continuation 2️⃣ ?With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. ?The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move): Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) ?With the recent moves, Minor Supply is holding and demand is failing to facilitate the INT-INT Bullish structure Pullback which reached the structure EQ (50%). 3️⃣ ?After the Bullish ii-BOS, price pulled in a corrective PA to the structure EQ (50%) and currently within the Daily Demand. ?Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF. 15m Chart Analysis https://www.tradingview.com/x/BsgzWki6/ 1️⃣ ?Swing Bullish ?INT Bearish ?Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount ?Swing Pullback Phase 2️⃣ ?The 15m Bullish Swing pullback phase is still intact with continues Bearish INT structures. ?Price had reached Swing extreme demand in Swing Discount. ?With the recent Bearish iBOS, price had formed Liq. above the 15m Demand which was sept with the break of the Weak INT Low, mitigating the 15m Demand and forming a Bullish CHoCH to initiate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback. ?Technically Shorts is the straight forward play (Played very well yesterday as per expectations and executions), but keep in mind that the Bearish INT structures task is to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback and we are currently in the Swing Discount Zone and if the Swing is going to continue Bullish, there is a high probability that the INT Structure is going to shift Bullish. 3️⃣ ?It’s a crossroads! Expectations is for price to turn Bullish and create a Bullish INT structure to confirm the Swing Pullback is over and the start of the Swing Bullish continuation Phase (Bullish iBOS for confirmation). ?Will be looking for longs after Bullish iBOS. As for Shorts, not in my interest currently based on where we are within the 115m Swing (Discount)/15m & 4H Demand even with the INT structure is Bearish.
This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! ???
⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction in the Asian session on Thursday, staying near its record high from the previous day. Concerns over a potential global trade war rise as US President Donald Trump threatens new tariffs, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, a drop in US Treasury yields further supports gold's appeal. ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: Bulls dominate, uptrend continues to create new ATH, a series of new tariff policies will be announced in the near future ⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE: ? SELL GOLD zone: $2956 - $2958 SL $2963 TP1: $2950 TP2: $2940 TP3: $2930 ?BUY GOLD zone: $2926 - $2928 SL $2923 scalping TP1: $2932 TP2: $2936 TP3: $2942 ? BUY GOLD zone: $2893 - $2895 SL $2887 TP1: $2902 TP2: $2910 TP3: $2920 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Trend Reversal Pattern Taken Support 5384 Bullish Engulfing RSI Reversal 40 Expected level 6278
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CxIMx9sr/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD#order ? 1. Current Market Overview ? ? Current Price: $2,941.74 ? High of the Day: $2,948.90 ? Major Resistance (R3): $2,950 ? Recently Broken Resistance (R2, now Support): $2,925 ? Key Dynamic Support (50 EMA): $2,930 ? Psychological Support (S1): $2,900 ? 2. Institutional Order Flow & Liquidity Analysis ?? ✅ Institutional Order Flow Insights: Institutions are likely accumulating near the $2,925-$2,930 area. Liquidity Sweeps: Market makers may attempt a liquidity grab near $2,950 before a possible reversal. COT Data: Institutional traders have increased long positions, showing bullish intent short-term. ? Best Indicator Combination ✔️ Fibonacci Retracement: $2,935 (38.2%), $2,925 (50%), $2,920 (61.8%) ✔️ 50 EMA & 200 EMA: Bullish crossover, supporting trend continuation. ✔️ RSI (7): At 61.82, showing bullish momentum but approaching overbought zone. ✔️ VWAP: Price trading above VWAP, confirming institutional buy pressure. ✔️ MACD: Bullish crossover detected, momentum favors buying. ? Liquidity Map Analysis Large sell orders are stacking up near $2,950. Stop-hunts possible above $2,950-$2,955 before a reversal. Institutions likely to take profits near $2,950-$2,955. ? 3. Technical Analysis Insights ?? ⚡ Momentum & Trend Indicators: ? RSI: Bullish, but nearing overbought conditions. ? Stochastic Oscillator: Bearish divergence detected! Potential reversal ahead. ? ? Moving Averages: Price stretched above 50 EMA, possible retracement to $2,930-$2,925. ? Volume Trends: Buying volume decreasing, suggesting a short-term pullback. ? 4. Buy or Sell? What is the Best Trade Setup Now? ✅? ? High-Probability SELL Setup ? Entry: $2,948 - $2,950 ⛔ Stop-Loss: $2,955 (Above key liquidity level) ? Take-Profit Targets: TP1: $2,930 TP2: $2,925 TP3: $2,900 (Psychological support) ? Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1 ⚡ 5. Ultra-Aggressive Execution Plan ?? ⏳ Confirmation Needed Before Entry: Wait for price to spike into $2,950-$2,955 liquidity zone. Look for bearish engulfing candle or strong rejection wick. Watch for institutional selling pressure in order flow data. ? Key Order Flow Signs to Watch: Large sell orders appearing above $2,950. Rapid absorption of buy orders, indicating smart money selling. ? FINAL DECISION – MILKING THE MARKET STRATEGY! ??? ? Verdict: SELL XAU/USD at $2,948-$2,950! ? ? Exact Trade Setup: ? Entry: $2,948-$2,950 ⛔ SL: $2,955 ? TP1: $2,930, TP2: $2,925, TP3: $2,900 ? Institutions are likely to take profits at $2,950-$2,955, leading to a short-term pullback. ? WE TRADE TO MILK THE MARKET EVERYDAY! ???
On the New Zealand/US $ aka "KIWI" we strongly believe wave 3 north has begun! Wave 2 correction played-out rather deep...which offers a nice long (BUY) entry position discount!~
? Hey Traders! Ready for BTC’s Next Big Move? ? If you’re loving this analysis, smash that ? and hit Follow for high-value trade setups that actually deliver! ?? ? Bitcoin is gaining bullish momentum! It’s breaking out from the symmetrical triangle on the 4H timeframe. If it holds above this triangle then we will see a test to its previous ATH ($107K-$108K)! ? What’s your take? Are we about to hit new highs, or will BTC face resistance? Drop your thoughts in the comments! Let’s dominate this market together—stay tuned for updates! ??