Man sieht derzeit eine klare Bewegung aus klassischen Risk-Off-Assets: Der JPY wird stark abverkauft, auch der EUR wurde erneut deutlich abgestraft. Im Bond-Markt und beim VIX beobachten wir einen intensiven Abverkauf, was dafür spricht, dass Liquidität freigesetzt wird, um wieder in Risk-On-Assets zu investieren. Wir werden diese Woche mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit eine anhaltende Rally im S&P 500 sehen – auch der Nasdaq und der Dow Jones (US30) dürften stark mitziehen. Risk-Off-Währungen wie der CHF und JPY werden voraussichtlich weiter unter Druck bleiben, während z. B. der CAD an Stärke gewinnen dürfte. Sinnvolle Setups: CADJPY & CADCHF long (nach sauberem Retrace) NZDCHF & NZDJPY long – ebenfalls ideal nach Korrekturbewegungen
Achtet morgen auf den Markt wenn wir wirklich den Forecast von 2,5% Inflation y/y bekommen, dann spricht das klar von einer Disinflation mit Rezessionaler Tendenz. Das bedeutet wir wollen deutlich höhere Preise im Euro sehen. Wir sehen heute den Sentiment Shift im Markt durch die Entspannung der kurzfristigen Lage durch Trump. Ich möchte also in die untere Zone kommen und dann den long im EURUSD
Context: PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching. BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, with heavy or urgent buying by the public being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often coincides with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price. AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR. ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. For a top to be confirmed, supply must outweigh demand; volume and spread should thus decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. An ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs before quickly reversing to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR. SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant. LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest. UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.
? ? ? Asset: Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar (BTCUSD) ? Timeframe: 30-Min Chart (Bitstamp) ? Setup Type: Bullish breakout with retest confirmation ? Trade Plan (Long Position) ✅ Entry Zone: $82,879 (post-breakout consolidation) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): $81,452 (below breakout + key demand zone) ? Take Profit Targets: ? TP1: $85,434 – resistance level ? TP2: $87,875 – previous high & major zone ? Risk-Reward Ratio: ? Risk: $82,879 - $81,452 = $1,427 ? Reward to TP2: $87,875 - $82,879 = $4,996 ? R/R Ratio: 1 : 3.5+ – solid reward potential ? Technical Breakdown ? Clean trendline breakout with retest ✔ ? Price holding above previous structure ✔ ? Volume confirms bullish breakout momentum ✔ ? Tight consolidation = potential launchpad setup ? ? Risk Management Strategy ? Move SL to breakeven at TP1 ? Partial profits at TP1 ? Let rest run to TP2 ? Stay disciplined – follow plan ? Setup Invalidation ❌ Break below $81,452 with strong volume ❌ Fakeout candle with rejection & close below trendline ⚡️ Final Thoughts ✔ Strong breakout setup backed by structure & momentum ✔ Excellent R/R for swing traders ✔ Follow the levels, not emotions ? #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #BreakoutSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #ProfittoPath #TradeSmart #ChartAnalysis #MomentumTrade #RiskManagement
Etherium falling from a Equal high, creating selling points and leaving behind liquidity, goin foward to grab previous external downflow liquidity and stoploss hunt so Etherium gain strenth and momemntum to reverse and start a upword liquidity grab. this is not an financial advise just a expeculation based on market previus moves.
•CMP: ₹6920| Stop Loss: ₹6700 Target:*7400 DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a SEBI registered advisor or a financial adviser. All the views are for educational purpose only.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7JX8qw1n/ ✅AUD_NZD is going up now But a strong resistance level is ahead at 1.094 Thus I am expecting a pullback And a move down towards the target at 1.086 SHORT? ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nasdaq fun fact. Today is one of the highest daily percentage gains ever for the Nasdaq, just above 12%. Guess where you find some of the others? Answer in chart below!
SPY Pre-Market Breakdown – April 9, 2025 Phase 1: 4:00 AM – 5:30 AM – Early Accumulation The pre-market session began with SPY trading around the 490 level, showing cautious price action in a consolidation pattern. During these early hours, price maintained a relatively tight range between 489 and 491, with minimal directional commitment. Volume remained light during this period, typical of early pre-market hours, but began building steadily as we approached 5:00 AM. Around 5:00 AM, we observed the first meaningful price movement as SPY began testing higher levels with several green candles pushing toward 494. This early strength coincided with increasing volume, suggesting genuine buying interest rather than just thin market conditions. The price action formed a series of higher lows, establishing a short-term uptrend channel. What's particularly noteworthy in this phase was the balanced options exposure, with call and put exposure roughly similar , indicating no strong directional bias from options traders yet. This balance suggested market participants were still positioning themselves, waiting for clearer signals before committing to a direction. Phase 2: 5:30 AM – 7:00 AM – Positioning Builds The second phase showed increased momentum and clearer directional bias. SPY continued its upward trajectory, breaking through the 494 level and eventually challenging the psychologically important 495 level. Volume began increasing significantly during this period, adding credibility to the price advance. Around 6:00 AM, we noticed the first significant divergence between call and put activity. Call exposure began increasing relative to put exposure, signaling growing bullish sentiment. The chart is indicating aggressive call buying or put unwinding. This shift in options flow provided an early signal that institutional traders were positioning for higher prices. Price consolidation occurred between 495-496 with increased volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution at these higher levels. The market was digesting gains but showed no signs of significant profit-taking or reversal. The price action formed a pattern of shallow pullbacks followed by renewed buying interest, a behavior often seen when institutions are accumulating positions. Phase 3: 7:00 AM – 8:45 AM – Execution The final phase demonstrated the culmination of the positioning seen earlier. Around 7:00 AM, price momentum accelerated with SPY pushing decisively through the 496 level and challenging 497. This breakout was accompanied by a significant increase in volume, confirming the validity of the move. Options flow data showed an explosion in call activity during this period, with call exposure reaching over 9 million contracts while put exposure remained relatively stable. Between 7:30 AM and 8:30 AM, we witnessed classic breakout behavior with price establishing itself firmly above previous resistance levels. Any shallow pullbacks were quickly bought, demonstrating strong conviction from buyers. The market is showing some put unwinding alongside continued call buying, suggesting traders were removing downside protection while adding to bullish positions. The Level II quotes showed a notable imbalance developing with buyers willing to pay up and fewer willing sellers. This order book imbalance further confirmed institutional interest in higher prices. Final Bias: Bullish The pre-market session demonstrated a clear bullish bias supported by multiple factors: Price Structure: A series of higher lows and higher highs throughout the session, breaking through multiple resistance levels with conviction. Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on advances and lighter volume on pullbacks, suggesting genuine buying interest and minimal profit-taking. Options Flow: Progressive increase in call exposure relative to puts, with the final phase showing overwhelming call dominance, indicating institutional positioning for upside. Order Flow: Aggressive buying on breakouts with minimal selling pressure on pullbacks, suggesting strong hands accumulating positions. Late Session Stabilization: Price holding gains near session highs with continued buying interest, rather than fading into the regular market open. Institutions appeared to be positioning for a higher open and potentially continued upside during the regular session. The methodical building of positions throughout the pre-market, rather than a single aggressive spike, suggests this was not merely a reaction to overnight news but rather deliberate positioning ahead of anticipated strength. Trade Setups with Entry, Stop, Target Trade 1: Breakout Continuation (High-Conviction) Entry Zone: 496.50-497.00 on first pullback after market open Stop-Loss: Below 495.75 (below pre-market consolidation) Profit Target: 499.50-500.00 (psychological level and round number) Rationale: Strong pre-market accumulation with increasing call flow suggests continued momentum into regular hours trading. Trade 2: Dip-Buying Opportunity (Medium-Conviction) Entry Zone: 494.80-495.20 if market pulls back to test breakout level Stop-Loss: Below 494.00 (previous resistance becomes support) Profit Target: 498.00-498.50 Rationale: Pre-market volume and options flow indicate institutions positioned for strength, likely to defend key levels on pullbacks.
Gold remains under pressure around the 3100 level, where previous trapped buyers are creating significant selling pressure. The heavier resistance zone lies between 3127–3146, so if you’re holding long positions, don’t be greedy — this is a crucial area to watch! Tomorrow during the U.S. session, we’re expecting major economic data and headlines. The market will likely see high volatility, and instead of a clear one-way trend, there’s a higher chance of a two-way sweep (both up and down). Trading Advice for Tomorrow: Avoid chasing price or getting caught in emotional trades. Control your position size — even if you end up holding during turbulence, a small and managed position won’t hurt you. You might even come out profitable. But if you enter with full margin and no risk control, the result could be heavy losses or even blowing your account. This is my honest advice! During the Asian and European sessions, the technical outlook favors short positions. Consider selling around the 3103–3123 zone, with support levels at: 3078 / 3066 / 3051 / 3027 / 3011 I will release updated strategies for the U.S. session tomorrow based on key data releases. Stay tuned and feel free to reach out if you have any questions. Good luck and trade safe!