The market has been in an uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows after a previous strong downtrend. Currently, CADCHF is testing a key resistance level (0.6185 - 0.6190), with signs of consolidation. A slight retracement is expected before a potential breakout to the upside. Key Levels: Resistance Levels: 0.6225 – First target after breakout. 0.6265 – Major resistance zone and final target. Support Levels: 0.6130 - 0.6140 – Potential retest zone before further upside. 0.6050 – Strong demand zone (invalidates bullish bias if broken). Trade Plan: ? Pullback Entry: Waiting for a small retracement to the 0.6140 zone before entering long. ? Bullish Breakout Confirmation: A break and close above 0.6190 could confirm further upside towards 0.6225 - 0.6265. Final Outlook: Bias: Bullish above 0.6140, bearish below. Risk Management: Stop loss below 0.6130. Potential Reward: A successful breakout can provide +80 pips upside.
By Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades The recent announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump's administration has generated a wave of uncertainty in financial markets. This measure could trigger a forceful response from the European Union, marking a paradigm shift in global trade and in the European bloc's economic strategy. Reactions in Europe and the ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has stressed the need for Europe to move towards greater economic independence. Her statements suggest that the EU will not back down from protectionist measures and that its fiscal and financial policy will have to adapt to this new global context. It can be sensed from the statements that countries such as Germany and Italy, with a strong dependence on automotive exports, could be among the most affected. In addition, strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum would face an increase in production costs and possible interruptions in supply chains. Spain and Poland could be affected in the strategic raw materials sector as one of the most powerful net exporters in Europe. Especially Spain, given that it dedicates a large part of its aluminum exports to the North American country. Economic and Financial Impact A tariff-based trade war could slow growth, increase unemployment and generate a disinflationary or even deflationary environment not only in the United States but also in the European economic region. In this context, the bond market has begun to discount further interest rate cuts, reflecting declines in longer maturity yields and break-even inflation rates. Expectations of Europe, and even traditional allied countries Canada and its rapprochement with Europe, as well as Japan and Korea showing approaches to China, could be demarcating a red line for the White House in terms of its foreign policy form. What Trump will have to consider if the market begins to respond so negatively to such an “enemy of trade” attitude, and especially such a “bad friend” to his traditional allies. Another key factor to consider is the NATO-NATO section where Europe may eventually displace the US from the grouping. DAX Analysis (Ticker AT: GER40) The German index has started the Asian session with a sideways movement and 2 hours before the European opening there have been strong falls after the alliance comments in Asia. The situation of the index seems to have reached a floor around 22,241 points generating a possible support this Wednesday. If we look at the trend, the index has reached highs twice last month on March 6 and 18, marking on the second occasion a new milestone trading at 23,480.22 points, generating a return to a range where the index is comfortable this year between 22,918 points and 22,105 points, with the annual lows at 22,209.21 points. The current situation is indicating a possible golden crossover to reverse the current situation. The Current Control Point (POC) is located at 22,967.56 points, so it would not be unusual with the increase in volume and with an oversold RSI at 44.93%, it is possible that the index climbs to 22,522 points in its mid-range zone and try to pierce if the news accompanies the Euro zone and in particular Germany and the companies that make up the index. If this happens, we could see an advance to the upper part of the range slightly below the indicated checkpoint. Future Outlook If the Trump administration maintains its uncompromising trade strategy, pressure on European financial markets could intensify. The EU, for its part, will have to assess possible countermeasures to protect its economy and maintain stability in an increasingly challenging environment. At ActivTrades, we are closely following these developments and their impact on global markets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
#SPX pulled back nicely to PZ yesterday before rallying 70 points, going back to resistance zone. Overall, price action looks toppish. Could see a move down to 5525/55 but will be looking for a turn at that level for a long. If level does not hold, next strong support below is at 5400. Today is Tariff day. Trade safe.
Litecoin has made a really good breakdown from the local bullish trend, where we are now waiting for either a BoS to form or an MSB, which would give us more clarity on upcoming movement. More in-depth info is in the video—enjoy! Swallow Team
BUY 1.07950 | STOP 1.07550 | TAKE 1.08350 | Upward movement.
Technical analysis of gold: From the market point of view, the trend has not changed. The negative line of the upper shadow of the single K line in the daily chart appears at a high level, which is a turning point. Whether a reversal can occur today will verify the validity of this K line. This wave of rise is caused by fundamentals and the atmosphere of the entire market. However, there is never a market that only rises and never falls. In other words, we do not go to dead short or dead long. Shorts only enter the market at important points. From a structural point of view, the rise has entered a symmetrical space in terms of time and span. It fell below the upper line in four hours, and the early high and fall were the same as expected. The structure has become weak short. The hourly chart is close to the upper line area and is currently running in a divergence, so the overall European market is still high and unchanged. It seems that gold bulls have not been able to go to a higher level with the support of the news, so gold bears may have opportunities at any time; gold is directly short at the current price of 3128 in the afternoon! Gold fell below yesterday's low of 3124 support as expected, and came all the way to 3100. I have been emphasizing that gold will have a big retracement, but the current decline is far from enough. Gold will continue to fall. The 1-hour moving average of gold has begun to turn downward, and gold may open up room for decline. The 1-hour moving average of gold has now formed a head and shoulders top structure. Rebounds will continue to be short. The market has weakened. Gold has not yet broken through the 3100 mark for the first time, but the direction of the market has turned short. If it does not break for the first time, I believe there will be a second attempt in the future. Then the bearish situation has been finalized. Long positions must be put aside first, because it is a bearish market now. Gold rebounds and adjustments can continue to be short. Pay attention to the 3128 line of pressure above. You can go short directly when it rebounds! On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to focus on rebound shorting and supplemented by callback long positions. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3138-3130 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3100-3083 line of support. Short order strategy: Strategy 1: When gold rebounds around 3128-3130, short (buy short) 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3110-3100, break to look at 3085 Long order strategy: Strategy 2: When gold falls back to around 3083-3085, buy (buy up) 20% of the position in batches, stop loss 6 points, target around 3100-3110, break to 3120
Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a sharp and aggressive drop below the $78,000 level, filling the CME gap in that region before making a swift recovery. This liquidity grab triggered a strong bounce, pushing the price back above $80,000 in a rapid reversal. Currently, BTC is trading around the $85,000 level, aligning with the 200-day EMA on both the daily and intraday charts. This key moving average often acts as a dynamic support and resistance zone, influencing price action significantly. The $86,000 level now serves as a crucial resistance point, and a retest is likely. If BTC fails to break above this level convincingly, a retracement could follow as short-term traders take profits and liquidity gets tested once again. However, if BTC manages to break and hold above $86,000, the next key resistance zones to watch are in the $88,000–$90,000 range. These levels will likely see increased selling pressure as BTC approaches new all-time highs. In the short term, we may see a period of consolidation or a minor pullback before another attempt to push higher. A successful breakout above $90,000 could open the door for further price discovery, while failure to hold key support levels could lead to another retracement towards the $82,000–$80,000 range.
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