Ethereum is approaching a support level. The risk-to-reward ratio is not very attractive since we are in a bearish trend, but we expect a reaction to the green zone. There are two targets ahead of the price, which we have marked on the chart. A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management Comment if you have any questions Thank You
This forecast is based on cyclical patterns that aim to identify potential price reversal TIMES only. Cycle indicator - CycleWave BTC/USD H1
On the above 2 week chart Gold price action has completed the much anticipated Cup and Handle forecast to $2700, which was where Without Worries dabbled with a “short” position and was promptly stopped out much to the bugs delight. Price action has rallied 180% since the 2016 lows, amazing. The increased Money supply / Money printing is the reason I’m often given for this historic rally. The facts are the money supply has increased 68% since the 2016 lows and not 180%, which would price an ounce at $1750 today. Now I know someone will be quick to comment my being selective with dates. To that end we can go back further, 18 years since that fits over the well understood business cycle, which is approaching its peak. Since 2007 money supply has increased 195% with Gold price action 400%. This is a bubble. This idea is not about fundamentals however, it is technical only. 1) Price action is in bubble territory. Look left, 50% above the 5 week Gaussian channel saw corrections of at least 30%. 2) Price action on the 2 week chart prints the strongest negative divergence since the positive divergence in December 2013 at 1190 an ounce. 3) The $2000 support breakout has never confirmed support. 4) On the weekly chart a bearish engulfing candle prints as price action enters the Bollinger Band. A correction to 2730 is now highly probable. Is it possible price action continues up? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww 5 week Gaussian channel https://www.tradingview.com/x/TDdMX7lE/ Weekly bearish engulfing https://www.tradingview.com/x/wDcfU1v2/
1. Top-Down Bias 1. Weekly (Long-Term): • Structural Trend: Bullish (higher highs/higher lows) since mid-2022. • Momentum: Cooling (Weekly MACD negative, RSI slipping from overbought). • Conclusion: Still in an uptrend overall, but increasingly vulnerable to corrective pullbacks. 2. Daily (Intermediate-Term): • Trend: Corrective/short-term bearish tilt (price below 10 & 50-Day SMAs). • Support: Key rising trendline near 5,830–5,850; 200-Day SMA around 5,737. • Conclusion: Intact broader uptrend, but near-term momentum is down. Bulls must reclaim ~6,000–6,100 to regain full control. 3. 4-Hour (Short-Term): • Trend: Bearish (lower highs/lower lows, price below major 4H SMAs & Ichimoku Cloud). • Bounce: Price is rebounding off ~5,830. Overhead resistance near 5,950–6,000. • Conclusion: Still bearish unless price closes decisively above ~6,000. 4. 2-Hour (Intraday): • Trend: Dominantly down, but intraday MACD and RSI have turned bullish. • Resistance: 5,940–5,970 (Fib confluence) and ~5,990–6,000 (Ichimoku Cloud base). • Conclusion: Short-term bounce is underway, but the structure remains cautious below 6,000. Overall Bias: • Long-Term: Bullish. • Short-Term: Bearish/Corrective. • Potential for a relief rally if price breaks above ~5,970–6,000. Otherwise, deeper corrections could target 5,830–5,850 or below. 2. Key Levels & Confluences • Major Resistance Zones: • 6,000–6,100: Overhead supply on Daily & 4H, plus 10 & 50-Day SMAs, Ichimoku cloud underside. • 5,970–6,000: 2H/4H Fib confluence and descending trend line. • Major Support Zones: • 5,830–5,850: Short-term bullish order blocks, rising daily trendline, and 2H/4H support. • 5,737: 200-Day SMA, key if the above zone fails. • 5,600–5,400 (Weekly OB) and 5,634 (50-Week SMA): Deeper support if a more significant correction unfolds. • Indicator Confluences: • Weekly Ichimoku → Price well above the cloud, but momentum fading. • Daily Ichimoku → Price near/below the cloud (~5,990–6,000). • MA Clusters → 10 & 50-Day near 6,000; 100-Day ~5,960; 200-Day ~5,737. • Fibs → 5,830–5,970 region offers multiple retracement overlaps on lower timeframes. 3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation / Recovery Narrative: Despite recent short-term weakness, the longer-term uptrend is still intact. A rebound could take hold if price holds above critical support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims the Daily/4H resistances near 6,000. Indicators on lower timeframes (2H MACD & RSI) hint at a near-term bounce. 3.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look for intraday bullish reversal candles (e.g., 2H bullish engulfing) near 5,840–5,860 support—before a confirmed 4H close above resistance. • This could be triggered if RSI on 2H recrosses above 50 (it already has) and price bounces off a retest of 5,850. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stops just below 5,830 (recent swing low). • Accept the risk of whipsaw if the market tests that area again. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Potential for a strong R:R if the bounce holds; you enter near the bottom of the range. • Cons: High chance of a false breakout or further drawdown if short-term momentum fails. 3.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for partial confirmation such as a 4H close above ~5,950–5,970 (descending trend line/Fib zone). • Alternatively, a bullish MACD crossover on the 4H chart or price reclaiming the 4H Ichimoku conversion line (~5,950–5,970). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., if price pulls back to 5,880–5,900, place stops slightly beneath). • Gives moderate breathing room compared to the ultra-tight approach. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Lower risk of immediate fakeouts. • Cons: May miss the absolute bottom if price reverses sharply without much consolidation. 3.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require strong confirmation: a Daily close above ~6,000 (10 & 50-Day SMAs + Ichimoku Cloud) to ensure the short-term trend has flipped bullish. • Prefer RSI (Daily) back above 50 and MACD turning positive on the Daily timeframe. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Wider stop below the 200-Day SMA (~5,737) or below 5,830 pivot if you want a slightly tighter but still “safer” cushion. • Aims to weather typical intraday volatility. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Much higher probability trade aligned with a proven trend resumption. • Cons: Enters at a higher price; your initial R:R might be smaller. 3.4 Bullish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~6,100 (major overhead supply, near the upper end of daily cloud/resistance). • Target 2 (T2): ~6,200–6,250 (next potential swing high if momentum truly shifts). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider taking partial profits at T1 (~6,100) and trailing stop to break-even. • If price pushes above 6,100, let a portion ride toward 6,200+. • Invalidation: • A Daily close below ~5,830 (or a 4H close well beneath that pivot) undermines the bullish thesis. • Bearish signals on Daily MACD (staying negative) also reduce bullish odds. 4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal / Deeper Correction Narrative: Recent breaks below key Daily MAs and a confirmed 4H/2H downtrend indicate the market may extend its pullback. The bounce to ~5,950–6,000 could fail, triggering a new leg lower toward 5,830 or even the 200-Day SMA (~5,737). 4.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Look to short on a minor retest/failure at intraday resistance (e.g., 2H pivot near 5,960–5,970). • Could also short an immediate break below 5,850 if that level cracks intraday. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Tight stop just above the local swing high (e.g., if shorting near 5,970, stop ~5,995–6,000). • This captures a potential quick continuation lower but risks getting stopped out on whipsaws. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Larger reward if the market breaks down quickly from near-resistance. • Cons: Elevated risk of fake breakdown or sudden bullish intraday reversal. 4.2 Moderate Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Wait for a 4H candle close below ~5,850 (the short-term support / OB zone) or for RSI (4H) to slip back under 50 from its bounce. • Confirm negative MACD cross or downward slope on the 4H chart. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Place stops slightly above the retest zone (5,870–5,880) or the most recent swing high. • Allows for typical 4H volatility around S/R lines. 4.3 Conservative / Low-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Require a Daily close below 5,830 (rising trendline break) and a retest that fails to reclaim that line. • Confirm daily MACD remains negative and RSI stays below 50. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above the nearest significant daily pivot or 200-Day SMA if you’re aiming for a multi-day to multi-week short. • A wide stop to accommodate more volatile corrections. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: High probability of a sustained down-move once that daily trendline is lost. • Cons: The initial break might be fast; you could miss the “best” short entry. 4.4 Bearish Targets & Management • Target 1 (T1): ~5,737 (200-Day SMA) if the immediate support at 5,830 fails. • Target 2 (T2): ~5,600–5,400 (major weekly OB & 50-Week SMA ~5,634). • Partial Profit / Trailing: • Consider locking in partial gains near T1 (200-Day) and trailing stops to break-even. • If momentum accelerates, hold a runner down toward 5,600 or lower. • Invalidation: • 4H or Daily close back above ~6,000 would undercut the bearish premise, as it signals a reclaim of critical MAs and Ichimoku territory. • A bullish MACD crossover on Daily also weakens the short thesis. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing 1. Volatility (ATR) Awareness: • Weekly ATR ~166; 4H ATR ~44. Elevated intraday volatility means you may need slightly wider stops or smaller position sizes. • For short-term trades (4H/2H), consider using a fraction of your usual size to account for bigger swings. 2. R:R Ratios: • Target at least 1:2 or better. • Scale your position so the max loss is within your tolerance (1–2% of your account per trade). 3. Timeframe Alignment: • Larger positions if Daily & Weekly confirm a direction. • If 4H/2H contradict the higher timeframes, trade smaller or wait for alignment. 4. Partial Profit Strategies: • At T1, take partial off (e.g., 50%) and move stop to entry. • Let the rest ride to T2 if momentum follows through. 6. Timing & Confirmation 1. Candle Close vs. Intraday: • For more reliable signals, wait for 4H or Daily closes at critical S/R (above 6,000 for bullish or below 5,830 for bearish). • Aggressive traders may jump in on intraday wicks or 2H signals but must accept higher whipsaw risk. 2. Market Sessions: • Key breakouts often occur during London or New York opens when liquidity spikes. • If trading overnight or in low-liquidity sessions, be mindful of sudden volatility pockets. 7. Extra Notes & Contradictions 1. Mixed Signals Across Timeframes: • Weekly bullish vs. 4H/2H bearish. This can cause choppy price action. Intraday shorts may still work in a higher timeframe uptrend as a temporary pullback trade. 2. Event & News Catalysts: • Unexpected fundamental events (economic data releases, central bank announcements) can override technical setups. 3. Ranging vs. Trending: • If price stalls between 5,850 and 5,950 for several sessions, we may be in a short-term range. Look to fade extremes until a breakout clarifies direction. 8. Final Summary • Top-Down Bias: • Weekly remains bullish overall but losing momentum. • Daily is short-term bearish, yet still above the 200-Day SMA. • 4H/2H are in a downtrend, but a bounce is in progress. • Key Levels & Confluences: • Support: 5,830–5,850; 5,737 (200-Day); deeper ~5,600–5,400. • Resistance: 5,970–6,000 (short-term), then 6,000–6,100 (major daily overhead). • Scenarios: • Bullish if price holds support (5,830–5,850) and reclaims ~6,000. • Aggressive: Buy near 5,840–5,860 on 2H signals. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close above ~5,950–5,970. • Conservative: Require Daily close above ~6,000 and a bullish MACD on Daily. • Bearish if price fails near 5,950–6,000 or breaks 5,830. • Aggressive: Short rejections around 5,960–5,970 or immediate break of 5,850. • Moderate: Wait for 4H close below 5,850. • Conservative: Require Daily close below 5,830 and retest fail. • Risk Management: • Use ATR to size positions, keep R:R ≥ 1:2, scale out at T1, etc. • Edge Cases / Fundamentals: • Stay alert for macro news or high-impact data that could abruptly change the technical landscape. Bottom Line: We have a long-term bullish market undergoing a short-term correction. A push above ~5,970–6,000 would reassert upside momentum; failure at this zone and a drop under 5,830 could extend the sell-off toward the 200-Day SMA or deeper weekly supports. Select the risk profile (Aggressive, Moderate, or Conservative) that best fits your trading style and capital preservation goals, and always align position sizing with your maximum risk tolerance.
The intensified conflict between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend and the surge in risk aversion may stimulate the continued rebound of gold to a certain extent. Gold closed at around 2858 on Friday. Gold may continue to rebound on Monday next week under the influence of risk aversion, so we will focus on the 2870-2880 area next. If gold still cannot break through the 2870-2880 resistance area even under the influence of news, then the structural peak of gold will be strengthened and confirmed again, and gold will continue the bearish trend under the suppression of the technical structure. So at the beginning of next week, we might as well consider using the 2870-2880 area as resistance and try to short gold first.
The Russell 2000 (US2000) index exhibits bearish sentiment as the long-term uptrend is under threat, with price action closing below the psychologically significant 200-day moving average (2209). Since reaching an all-time high on November 25, 2024, the index has started to show weakness, suggesting a potential continuation of its corrective consolidation. Bullish Scenario: The 2209 level (200-day moving average) serves as a critical support zone. A bullish rebound from this level could restore upward momentum. Potential upside targets include: 2257 (initial resistance) 2324 (next major resistance) 2360 (longer-term target) A strong bounce from 2209 could signal a recovery and reaffirm the broader uptrend, attracting renewed buying interest. Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break below 2141 support, followed by a daily close under this level, would indicate further weakness. This could accelerate the downside momentum, leading to potential targets at: 2093 (next key support) 2023, if selling pressure intensifies A sustained move below 2141 would invalidate the bullish outlook, suggesting the corrective phase could deepen, with the potential for an extended pullback. Market Outlook: The 2209 level remains the key pivot—holding above it could support a recovery, while a decisive break lower would confirm a deeper correction. Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation signals to assess the next directional move in the market. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gbp/Cad is trading currently at significant resistance level. Many traders are expecting price to drop from here and sentiment is on downside. But looking at current priceaction and fundamentals connected to canadian dollar. I personaly expect prices to go higher from here. First target are highs from May 2018. Looking on monthly and weekly timeframes we can cleary see momentum to upside and during last two weeks there has been only buying and no selling, plus looking on latest COT reports institutions are heavly selling CAD. If this level holds it's a good sign for more upside.
Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 did not succeed in retesting the Mean Resistance level of 6082. Instead, the index experienced a notable decline, reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and narrowly approaching the Key Support level of 5827. Following this downturn, a significant rebound occurred, resulting in the establishment of a new Mean Support level at 5860. The index is now positioned to target the Mean Resistance level of 5967. Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current level and successfully surpass the critical Mean Resistance of 5967, it may continue to rise toward the Mean Resistance level of 6032, potentially reaching the Key Resistance level of 6143. Conversely, if the index declines from its present position, it may create a retest pullback to revisit the Mean Support level of 5860 before resuming further upward momentum.
I took a short at the golden pocket, because sell pressure came in. This was shown by 30 min one time framing. The upside move and retest of the 0.5 fib normally looks bullish to me and in the past I would be only in long mode since 30 min otf from the 0.5 fib. In this case I wanted to actively counter trade the bulls from higher prices and the setup was given. So as mentioned before, the upside move with the claim of the pmPOC looks bullish, but while losing it to perform the bullish backtest, it becomes a bearish move aswell. The loss of the pmPOC (to perform the bullish retest) offers a failure to rotate scenario (FTR). In this case the liquidity at the origin of the move is the target. I have marked it on the chart as FTR draw at 10.343. Whenever the price claims a POC, it could continue a lot before it performs the retest. So ideally the retest would still happen above the POC (bullish case). Then bulls are a lot in favor, but we can often see the POC claim quickly followed by a loss, giving a 50 / 50 chance for bears and bulls, two setups at the same time. So why am I more bearish than bullish on this one? If you look at the freshest pwProfile, which is the only relevant for the current price action, then you can see that the price got rejected by the POC (reversion to the mean, then the auction process started again and bears stepped in) and then again the more local retest (where I took the short) happened from the low volume area of that profile. If bulls would be strong, then they would manage to get through the low volume area at least to the POC and ideally above. Well, they didn´t. That was another sign of weakness for me. So locally bears are in favor and if you check the 4 hr chart, below are some singleprints, fvg whatever you want to call it. That is interesting liquidity which isn´t given locally above. That´s another bearish factor here. Now let´s think about the previous month profile. The whole price action down here is rather below the POC than above. Yes an attempt with a claim of the POC could be bullish, but all the claims above where short lived indicating that it was only a liquidity hunt - not too bullish. It fell back below and spend here most of the time. That is accumulation below the POC which is also rather bearish. I have checked these liquidity hunts above and all of them rejected a low volume area of the pmProfile. It isn´t even the LVN (low volume node) of the profile. If bulls would be in control, they would easily slip through the low volume area and flip it to support. They didn´t multiple times. What do we have below? Singleprints offering interesting liquidity, the frontran pmVAL offering liquidity and below (check the 4 hr or daily chart) are singleprints aswell, offering liquidity once again. All these things are much more bearish than bullish so I decided to not stick to the potential bullish setup off the 0.5 fib. That´s why I have decided to take the short. First target is the FTR draw but the main target is the pmVAL to finish the bearish rotation. The bearish setup remains valid as long as bulls can not claim the pmPOC, hold it, form higher lows above locally as first signs of strength. That´s why the swing high at 13.110 is my invalidation. Btw: As mentioned before, the loss of the pmPOC (to perform the bullish retest) offers a FTR scenario. So does the pwProfile now because the price is unable to fully rotate it (obviously because of the rejection). Both profiles confirmed a FTR which is bearish. https://www.tradingview.com/x/l70KJEkL/
Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the initial rally attempt in this week's trading session, The Euro failed to reach our target of Inner Currency Rally 1.060 due to prevailing bearish sentiment. As a result, the market established a Mean Resistance target of 1.041. The current trend suggests a continuation of the downward price movement toward our designated target of Mean Support at 1.030, and there may be a retest of the Completed Outer Currency Dip at 1.020 via Key Support at 1.024. Conversely, if the anticipated downward trend does not materialize, we may witness the Eurodollar retesting the Mean Resistance level of 1.041 and subsequently target the Inner Currency Rally level of 1.060.