Bitcoin has broken a bearish flag in medium time frames. If a rebound comes would be an opportuinty to get short positions. The problem with Bitcoin is not only the bearish flag currently working on. It has a change of character in daily time frame which I posted a lot about it another of my analysis. I don't think the values of assest is cheap at the moment. In fact, they're about to get cheaper a lot in coming days. For now, 76400 is looking like a specific target for the main flag formation. Thanks for reading.
This looks like a C&H set up on the Daily and 4hr charts
It's been a while since I've done a bit of a deep-dive on this market and why I don't believe it'll sustain a significantly higher value in the future. I no longer have the stamina to write a long-winded post. It's exhausting at this point, and I don't need to reiterate it. Instead, I'll summarize recent developments and their impact on the crypto narrative. 1) The TOTAL crypto market cap currently rests below the all-time high from 2021. This is even including stablecoins. There is $144B worth of USDT currently in circulation. In 2021, that number was $80B. Meanwhile, stock indexes and several individual stocks are significantly up from their last peaks. From a "store of value" standpoint, this doesn't look great, particularly factoring in inflation. Adjusted for inflation, Bitcoin itself is sitting below its inflation-adjusted 2021 all-time high, which is around $84K. 2) Bitcoin active addresses are back to 2017 levels and BELOW the levels from even the previous bear market! https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/addresses.ActiveCount?a=BTC 3) In the eyes of a growing number of investors, Trump and Elon's crypto push has only solidified the crypto market as a joke and as a global symbol of greed and corruption. 4) Gold has far outpaced Bitcoin as a store of value during this recent period of turbulence, disproving Bitcoin as a possible safe haven. Here is the Bitcoin/Gold chart for reference: https://www.tradingview.com/x/pylw1hzr/ 5) Still, if cryptocurrencies completely ceased to exist, there would be no net-negative effect on the world. In fact, it may be a net-positive. Unless this suddenly changes, crypto does not have any real world value. You cannot say this about any other market: If most major companies and resources ceased to exist, we'd see a very significant (mostly negative) impact on our daily lives, almost immediately. In summary, I don't think people will be coming in droves to invest in this market. I think that ship has sailed. The opportunity for it to prove itself has waned, and it has been overtaken by largely bad actors. If anything, I think people are more likely to be forced to buy it than enter the market willingly. From a technical standpoint, a breakdown from the big uptrend channel in the chart above would likely confirm that the top is in. --------------------------------------------- Beware, a crypto narrative still exists, but it's only the one fed to us by those in power. It will be important not to fall for it. I worry that people will be forced to own cryptocurrencies, at the expense of their freedom. And even in a situation where crypto prices continue to increase, it is unlikely to be seen positively. Once we graduate from these strange and confusing times, rife with dissociation, monopolies, grift, and power consolidation, it seems more likely that humanity will look at crypto as part of an uncomfortable past. If we never move on to more optimistic times, and things continue to become more dystopian, well, then that would be a time where crypto adopters can say, "hey, we were right!" But...at what cost? Regardless, it will always be possible to profit from the volatility, hence my attempts at trading a little recently, with a focus on Litecoin. So, trading opportunities will present themselves, which will keep at least some people interested in this market. I think it is unlikely to be enough liquidity to sustain significant new all-time highs. Here is my last big post, where I detailed more reasoning - this was prior to the Bitcoin ETF's: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ls1U1y0d-Bitcoin-s-Final-Make-Or-Break-Moment/ And here is a recent post, where I describe how my own thoughts about the market evolved, from when I first entered in 2017 to the present: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/v4FoMKGM-Bitcoin-Lofty-Promises-Disturbing-Results-My-Crypto-Journey/ As always, this represents only my opinion, and is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not as financial advice. There are many other opinions out there. It is your responsibility to develop critical thinking. Thanks for reading as always! -Victor Cobra
? DID EVERYONE REMEMBER ? ? ?February 14th – I told everyone loud and clear SHORT or SELL because BTC was about to DUMP. Look at where we are now another perfect prediction, another massive win. ? Hope all my real ones remembered and stayed safe in this move. We are still valid in our analysis, deep in profits, and absolutely killing this trade. ✅ Book partial profits – Lock in those gains. ✅ Move SL to entry – No risk, stress-free ride. We move smart, calculated, and ahead of the market. Now, let’s analyse the next move. ?BTC Technical Analysis What’s Next ? Bitcoin followed the bearish rejection from key resistance and is continuing its downtrend. We saw a weak consolidation before another breakdown, and structure still favors further downside. ? Key Levels to Watch ? Support: $68,500-$70,000 – If this level breaks, BTC could accelerate lower. ? Resistance: $85,000-$86,000 – A reclaim of this zone would invalidate further downside. ? Potential Scenarios 1️⃣ If BTC holds above $75,000-$76,000, we could see a short-term bounce before another drop. 2️⃣ If BTC loses $70,000, expect further downside targeting $68,500 or lower. 3️⃣ Bulls need a strong reclaim above $85,000 to flip structure bullish again. ? We remain bearish until BTC shows clear strength. Manage risk, stay disciplined, and ride the trend. ?Drop a comment and follow if you caught this move & let’s stay ahead of the game!?
If Bitcoin breaks below the uptrend that has been in play since Sep 2023, I believe that said uptrend could start to act as resistance and that moves down to 52K are possible. Possibility of a rally into latter part of April shortly following by a significant move down to one of these levels: - the 618 - the downtrend that began to form in Mar 24 - the support region 49-52k Projected flight path for "trough" est. Jun-Jul 25 A new ATH is usually printed Nov-Dec of the year following the BTC halving event: - Dec 2013 - Nov 2017 - Nov 2023 Conclusion (provided the uptrend is broken): - Rejection late Apr - Trough in Jun - New ATH Nov/Dec ?♂️
Trade Setup: Entry Level: $1,846.9 (Optimal buy zone) Stop Loss: $1,635.4 (Risk management level) Target Levels: Take Profit 1: $2,012.5 Take Profit 2: $2,230.0 Take Profit 3: $2,458.0 Strategy Overview: A buy position can be considered near the entry level. Profit can be booked at gradual take profit levels for a balanced risk-reward ratio. A strict stop-loss ensures controlled risk in case of market downturns. This structured approach helps in disciplined trading and effective risk management.
I am going into April Bullish. I believe this two-legged pullback is over on the Daily. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Dt3IICGb/ The ATR on the Daily has been a valuable tool to pick the lows. Every time ATR spikes and falls, that is the low. https://www.tradingview.com/x/1nGOOOY9/ I will be looking for price to slow down and layer into 41,580, form a higher low and start the bullish march back up. https://www.tradingview.com/x/8t4D5ZjE/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/5tLEunuO/ The Monthly Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/VT91SdZP/ The Weekly Chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/83LzO9eV/
***I will be releasing a video either tomorrow or Monday. Had to have an emergency procedure on my mouth and am unable to speak clearly at the moment*** Convertible Bonds: Immediately after the news was released I posted that the interest-free Bonds were a good thing as they were not immediately dilutive because Buyers need price to rise in order to see profit. The Bonds were ultimately priced at approx 29.85. Why did the price decline so sharply? In the words of Larry Cheng..Hedge Funds Gonna Hedge or in words Hedges would use: Convertible Bond Arbitrage. Simply said "Arbitrage" plays try to exploit mispricing between two or more correlated assets. In this case...GME Stock price vs The price of the Bonds. To hedge against the risk of the Bonds not appreciating in value (remember they don't pay interest so they NEED the stock price above 29.85 to see profit) they enter an equivalent SHORT position to essentially make themselves Delta Neutral to any unfavorable moves in the stock price (aka they dont want to be exposed if price never makes it above 29.85 or sees sharp declines at a future date). The mispricing piece of this comes from volatility and options values and would materialize as the price of the shorts converge with the price of the Bonds (the more volatility the more the potential mispricing and profit potential) WHAT HAPPENS IF PRICE SQUEEZES THEN? ALL short sellers are future buyers so they would most likely cover to possibly close the shorts, which on top of what THE CAT is doing could cause MOASS to be even GREATER IN MAGNITUDE...yeah this was a CHECKMATE of a move by Ryan Cohen and the board people. MOASS PLAYBOOK: I have been saying for months that I'm fairly certain I have figured out the exact timing of The Cats play. Without saying more than I'm comfortable saying its built around settlement cycles. Everything I learned I learned from his tweets...literally EVERYTHING is there And the kicker to all of this is that it works on more than just GME...as he has shown. What you see on the chart is EXACTLY how MOASS will transpire based on what I've learned. Could I be wrong? Of Course. You are responsible for your own trading so I would advise you to assume I am and TRADE WHAT YOU SEE...NOT WHAT YOU HOPE FOR So I have now given you the EXACT timing as I have it laid out on my personal charts AND potential targets for a TOP This will either be one of the greatest calls of all time or one of the greatest cases of SHEER DELUSION..I'm responsible for my own trading so I'm fine with either outcome Good trading to you all! I am Heartbeat Trading..Activist Short Squeezer
Asper Elliott wave forecasting the current 4th wave ended this week. A new wave will begin as 'c5' during 1'st week of April and it may be the climax rally. Validity of this wave count holds good as long as last weeks low respected. Traders can initiate long with 5500 as strict stop. The target will be reached swiftly
- The art of trading lies in analyzing the past to anticipate the future. On the yearly timeframe, BTC has consistently followed this cycle: - 1 year of bearish decline.?. - 1 year of consolidation and bottoming out.?. - 1 year of steady growth.?. - 1 year of explosive upward movement.?. based simply on that : - 2025 is poised to be a breakout year for BTC. - 2026 should be the next bear market. - Everything changes, nothing lasts forever, but as a trader, you must stay on course. - Don't let market noise shake your confidence. Happy Tr4Ding !