weekly cycle 2 trading practice to test the weekly cycle.
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USDCHF has pushed down to this area before and rejected perfectly so I'm expecting it to do the same once price reach entry
Played out exactly how I expected it price could continue to push but a pull back before continuing is possible
BTC short term holder realizes price show the indication that short term holder still in loss position while it is below realize price at $93.000, we can assume that it is in accumulation phase while the main support intact...
Hello traders, Today we’re focusing on Bitcoin’s intraday timeframe to identify potential trade setups and key price levels. Over the past week, BTC has been moving sideways, forming a defined intraday range. Understanding this structure can help us anticipate likely rotations and plan trades accordingly. Key Technical Points: • Established Range: High at $87,459 and low at $80,692 – price continues to rotate within this zone. • Short Setup Objective: Watch for weakness on a retest of $86,037 to potentially short back down toward the range low. • Significant Liquidity Levels: Major high at $88,560 and key low at $76,545 – likely future targets if internal structure breaks. The current intraday structure suggests Bitcoin is stuck in a sideways range. If price rejects at $86,037, this could offer a high-probability short opportunity targeting the lower range boundary. On the flip side, holding above the point of control could fuel an impulsive move toward upper resistance. From a trading perspective, this is still a rotational environment. Until we see a clean break of the range highs or lows, it’s likely BTC continues to chop within these bounds. As always, discretionary trade management is crucial—especially in range-bound conditions where false breakouts can occur. Patience and reaction over prediction remains key.
As we can see right here, there has been multiple touchdowns in the upper trend line of the huge falling wedge. This might indicate a break above and retest and going forward. Even there are some pretty decent bullish divergences on lower time frames as well.
Overview & Market Context NVIDIA just saw a major sell-off, dropping around 7% in a single session and slicing below key support levels. This abrupt move has raised questions: Is NVDA oversold enough for a bounce, or are we at the onset of a broader bearish trend? High trading volume suggests significant institutional distribution, so caution is warranted for both bulls and bears. Technical Breakdown Price Action & Volume NVDA closed near the $94.31 mark after the sharp decline. Volume spiked (~532M), confirming that large players have been active—often a sign of heightened volatility and potential trend changes. Moving Averages The 200-day SMA sits near $127.07, which NVDA fell below decisively. Historically, losing the 200-day often signals a medium-term bearish bias, making it a key level to watch on any rebound attempts. RSI & Momentum The RSI on the daily timeframe is hovering around the high-20s, indicating oversold conditions. While this can lead to a short-term bounce, oversold can remain oversold if negative momentum persists. Key Levels to Watch Immediate Resistance $96–$100 Range: Minor overhead supply; if price rallies here, watch to see if it rolls over again. $105–$110: This region aligns with prior support-turned-resistance. A strong push above $110 would challenge the bearish thesis. Primary Support Targets $90 (Psychological Marker): Could be the first zone for a pause or bounce. $82.89 (“Half 1 Short” from algorithmic levels): A logical next stop if the sell-off continues. $76 Area: Deep support from earlier consolidation zones; if selling intensifies, the stock may reach these levels. Potential Trade Setups Bearish Continuation (Short) Entry: On a weak bounce into the $96–$100 zone, or A breakdown below $94 on strong volume. Stop Loss: Conservative approach: Above $105–$110, where a bullish reversal could invalidate the short setup. Profit Targets: $90 (near-term psychological level), $82.89 (algorithmic short target), $76 (longer-term support). Contrarian Bounce (Long) Entry: Around $90 or upon a clear intraday reversal signal (e.g., a bullish engulfing candle on strong volume). Stop Loss: Below $88 to reduce risk of a deeper flush. Profit Targets: $96–$100 (short-term push), Extended target near $105–$110 if momentum sharply reverses. Thought Process & Strategy The extreme volume and steep decline reflect a high-conviction move. Usually, when you see volume spikes on a breakdown, it suggests institutional selling, meaning rallies may be met with further supply. However, the oversold reading (RSI in the high-20s) hints that a bounce might come soon—though it could be short-lived unless macro or fundamental conditions shift. Clearly defining both bullish and bearish scenarios—along with exact stop-loss levels—removes emotion and helps avoid “decision paralysis.” Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Final Notes Risk Management: Always size positions so that a single trade does not jeopardize your account. Emotional Control: These levels are algorithmically defined, aiming to reduce subjective bias. Watch how price reacts at each support/resistance zone. Stay Vigilant: With elevated volatility, rapid intraday swings are possible. Monitor real-time price action for confirmation. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Perform your own due diligence, and trade responsibly.
Though the correction and market reaction was expected for macro economic conditions, did not anticipate such severe and sharper decline. This doesn't mimic regualr circumstances like healthy and organic correction, rather it mimic covid and 1987 flash crash. I started to feel now we may repeat 1987 thus may see more downtrend next week or two and slowly world comes to adjust to new conditions and prepare. This could be slow recovery thereafter hardly touching 5100 on S&P by Christmas
Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum. The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include: Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested) High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66 Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41 Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16 For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16). Critical levels summary: Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16 Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16 Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16 Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46 Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon. These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.